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Post by Disciple of Fate on Feb 26, 2024 13:24:27 GMT -5
You mean Jeb Bush? GWB didn't really struggle.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Feb 26, 2024 13:29:38 GMT -5
You mean Jeb Bush? GWB didn't really struggle. Maybe he means senior after Reagan?
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Post by easye on Feb 26, 2024 13:38:27 GMT -5
No, I mean George W. Bush.
After GWB left office with the fiasco of Iraq, the R's pretty much distanced themselves from the guy. This was only solidified after he renounced Trump and did not endorse him.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Feb 26, 2024 13:56:26 GMT -5
Ah, I had not considered that angle of GWB.
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Post by Peregrine on Feb 26, 2024 16:45:42 GMT -5
The thing with Haley is she's got nothing to lose. Staying in second place and hoping Trump dies, leaving her as the only candidate with any votes and a credible claim to the nomination, is a long shot but it's the best opportunity she's going to get.
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Post by adurot on Feb 26, 2024 16:56:15 GMT -5
Not just dead, also maybe convicted and incarcerated.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Feb 26, 2024 17:58:23 GMT -5
Nothing prevents him from running from prison, right? Although I can't imagine he will be locked up before the convention, if at all. Taking away his nomination and giving it to Haley might split the party sufficiently.
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Post by Peregrine on Feb 26, 2024 18:33:42 GMT -5
Nothing prevents him from running from prison, right? Legally, no. He wouldn't be entitled to leave prison to do campaign rallies, have extra phone or visitor time to make appearances, etc, but he could still be on the ballot. If he won he could then pardon himself on all federal charges but not on any state charges. But it's far more likely that the restrictions on running an effective campaign combined with the people who won't vote for a guy in jail would make the campaign a hopeless cause. The RNC knows this and would almost certainly find a way to get him off the ballot and replace him with someone who isn't in prison (with Haley making her best case for getting that role by default).
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Post by easye on Feb 27, 2024 10:49:08 GMT -5
If Trump loses in 2024, I expect him to immediately announce his candidacy for 2028.
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 27, 2024 11:09:13 GMT -5
I'd say he'll be dead by then, but back at the last election I honestly expected he'd be dead by now...
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Feb 27, 2024 11:15:16 GMT -5
Nothing prevents him from running from prison, right? Legally, no. He wouldn't be entitled to leave prison to do campaign rallies, have extra phone or visitor time to make appearances, etc, but he could still be on the ballot. If he won he could then pardon himself on all federal charges but not on any state charges. But it's far more likely that the restrictions on running an effective campaign combined with the people who won't vote for a guy in jail would make the campaign a hopeless cause. The RNC knows this and would almost certainly find a way to get him off the ballot and replace him with someone who isn't in prison (with Haley making her best case for getting that role by default).
I would not be surprised if he did get special dispensation for extra phone and visitor time or even to attend rallies. He is rich and well connected and a former president. I highly doubt he would have a typical prison experience.
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Post by dabbler on Feb 27, 2024 12:37:36 GMT -5
Legally, no. He wouldn't be entitled to leave prison to do campaign rallies, have extra phone or visitor time to make appearances, etc, but he could still be on the ballot. If he won he could then pardon himself on all federal charges but not on any state charges. But it's far more likely that the restrictions on running an effective campaign combined with the people who won't vote for a guy in jail would make the campaign a hopeless cause. The RNC knows this and would almost certainly find a way to get him off the ballot and replace him with someone who isn't in prison (with Haley making her best case for getting that role by default).
I would not be surprised if he did get special dispensation for extra phone and visitor time or even to attend rallies. He is rich and well connected and a former president. I highly doubt he would have a typical prison experience. Yeah, there's all of no chance he has the same experience as a regular person in prison
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Feb 27, 2024 12:54:01 GMT -5
If he gets convicted at all, I wouldn't be totally shocked if he gets the weekend prison treatment, where they sort of negotiate the specifics. Maybe an ankle monitor, but that might be logistically difficult.
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Post by dabbler on Feb 27, 2024 16:28:34 GMT -5
If he gets convicted at all, I wouldn't be totally shocked if he gets the weekend prison treatment, where they sort of negotiate the specifics. Maybe an ankle monitor, but that might be logistically difficult. I think the idea of him suffering consequences is a delusion that some Americans are really holding onto, the whole "we don't have kings, all men are equal" thing. The idea of someone of his power suffering real consequences for something like this is so rare, people with the faintest fraction of his power who get caught up in civil cases where they owe money take years to pay it back if they do at all, someone with his status won't have to in all but the weirdest cases. He's going to walk on almost everything, but they need to tell themselves he won't to keep up the myth that it's equal under the law etc.
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Post by pacific on Feb 28, 2024 5:54:04 GMT -5
Even if Trump dies with the nomination, I can't imagine the hardline maga wing will accept Haley, what is her chance for an impromptu selection in the case of a Trump demise, the base seems far more likely to accept DeSantis or someone outside the (by then finished) primaries. Judging on what has happened so far, I would say there is every chance that Trump dies and is still selected as the Republican candidate.
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