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Ukraine
Mar 16, 2023 11:41:19 GMT -5
Post by pacific on Mar 16, 2023 11:41:19 GMT -5
That's certainly a possibility. You can also get that effect both before and as the afterburner is being switched on (which I guess makes sense as that's basically how they function). I've attended probably several dozen airshows over the past 30 years and you see that. Usually some of the older Russian stuff but also Phantoms, Tornadoes etc. This is a shot I took of a Mig-29 doing similar, some years ago To me it looks like the pilot has misjudged, realised he is on a collision trajectory and is trying to extricate himself, unsuccessfully.
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Ukraine
Mar 16, 2023 12:00:15 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by adurot on Mar 16, 2023 12:00:15 GMT -5
Oh, were you referring to the big plumes the jet was releasing on approach? Yeah, they were dumping fuel on the drone. Again, they did it nineteen times before they misjudged and clipped it on the last pass. The video shows one successful pass, plus the bad pass where they hit the drone. If you keep watching the video after it drops out it comes back on and you can see the damaged propeller.
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Ukraine
Mar 16, 2023 12:49:17 GMT -5
Post by easye on Mar 16, 2023 12:49:17 GMT -5
So, what was dumping fuel on the Drone supposed to actually do..... other than be a juvenile joke about "taking a dump" on the US?
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Ukraine
Mar 16, 2023 13:07:27 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Disciple of Fate on Mar 16, 2023 13:07:27 GMT -5
It can probably damage sensors and other more fragile parts, depending on the material.
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Ukraine
Mar 16, 2023 14:36:12 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by adurot on Mar 16, 2023 14:36:12 GMT -5
Supposedly intended to damage/down it, though I don’t know the mechanics of how.
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Ukraine
Mar 17, 2023 6:14:50 GMT -5
Post by pacific on Mar 17, 2023 6:14:50 GMT -5
Yep sorry guys I had definitely got that wrong - I follow an ex-Tomcat pilot on Youtube (whose judgement on something definitely matters more than mine, lol) - he was 100% that it was a fuel dump, not afterburners.
I'm not really sure what effect the fuel dump would have had, other than the stink and presumably a bit of a nasty cleaning job for whoever had to do it when the drone got back? I'm not sure what effect it would have had on the drone's systems or operability. Perhaps just the equivalent of pissing on something to mark your territory, who knows..
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 656
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Post by herzlos on Mar 17, 2023 15:14:48 GMT -5
Oil (fuel) will be a nightmare for electronics and sensors, and given it's flammable there's a risk that enough heat will set it off.
It's presumably an attempt to block the sensors and cause it to crash in a way they can recover most of it, instead of just blowing it up.
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Post by easye on Mar 20, 2023 9:29:19 GMT -5
Also, less provocative than simply hitting it with guns or missiles. That could be considered a clear-cut Act of War. Dumping fuel on a drone, is a much greyer area when it comes to Acts of War.
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Post by pacific on Apr 4, 2023 6:46:33 GMT -5
An interesting article on the Russian blogger that got blown up yesterday, who it seems had no shortage of people lining up to do the deed. www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/03/killed-russian-blogger-vladlen-tatarsky-soft-target-many-enemiesI am not sure if the person that delivered the bomb herself was just a 'useful idiot' or had been manoeuvred in some way. Was it Ukraine or even a FSB 'false flag' operation? It mentioned that she had been arrested for protesting the start of the war, you can easily imagine something like that happening.
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Ukraine
Apr 4, 2023 12:36:51 GMT -5
Post by squidhills on Apr 4, 2023 12:36:51 GMT -5
I doubt the Ukrainians blew this guy up. If they had the capacity to explode people in Russia, I like to think they would prioritize blowing up someone who mattered. I don't think this was a false flag, either. Putin's murder MO involves tall buildings and open windows. But, does anyone remember that Russian news presenter who got herself car bombed a few months back? The lady who was the daughter of Alexander Dugin, Putin's personal "philosopher"? A Russian anti-Putin group claimed responsibility for her death. She was involved in the media, this guy was involved in the media... she was killed with a bomb, this guy was killed with a bomb...
Anyway, that's the conspiracy my brain is going with for now.
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Ukraine
Apr 4, 2023 16:41:17 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by A Town Called Malus on Apr 4, 2023 16:41:17 GMT -5
Russian intelligence throws people out of buildings because it has the thinnest veneer of deniability. Someone fell from the balcony? I mean, it could be suicide, right?
You don't want that kind of deniability for a false flag attack. The whole point of a false flag is to have the thing happen and be obvious in happening. The denial part of it is not whether a murder took place, as it is for the assassination of dissidents, but who committed the murder.
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Ukraine
Apr 4, 2023 17:40:23 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Disciple of Fate on Apr 4, 2023 17:40:23 GMT -5
Putin's MO is incredibly broad, defenestration has become a meme, but plenty of Putin critics got gunned down in broad daylight.
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Post by pacific on Apr 5, 2023 5:33:51 GMT -5
Yeah, there's zero chance of the draft coming back. The military doesn't want people who don't want to be there, and long before we reach the level of desperation where the draft is needed the war will have gone nuclear and ended civilization. Eh, I worry enough could survive a nuclear exchange to allow the war to continue, probably driven by revenge at that point. Major population centres would mostly be devastated, but large areas between these would be broadly unaffected. If enough existing leadership remains then a war effort can be organised. Maybe the belligerent populations would be cowed into peace, but it only takes one to have the will to fight on to force the war on into an attritional affair like the World Wars. A nuclear winter of any significance almost certainly wouldn't happen. Everything I have read on this topic indicates a nuclear exchange would absolutely produce a nuclear winter, amongst every other factor that would cause a collapse of civilisation. There is no 'limited exchange' because the MO of a nuclear strike is to try and prevent your opponent from doing the same back to you - otherwise a single, smaller strike allows your opponent to utterly obliterate you in response. Hence the nomenclature of 'mutually assured destruction' - we currently have (or have had) the arrangement that we don't want the end of the world, so that is presented as the outcome of any one state attempting a nuclear attack. Add to this that the ICBM weapons deployed have an explosive yield many, many times of that used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I believe estimates were something like 1.5 million immediate deaths if the largest weapon in Russia's arsenal were dropped on London. It is unimaginable. I am sure humanity would survive in some form. But, the hundreds of millions that died in the initial strikes would be joined by billions more in the following years as a result of that nuclear winter/extreme weather events and collapse of economies, agriculture, industry, globalisation. I don't think it's possible to overstate how catastrophic it would be, and I don't think unreasonable to think that the lucky ones would be those killed in the initial blast.
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Post by easye on Apr 5, 2023 9:35:06 GMT -5
Nuclear doctrine is much more complex than just Mutually Assured Destruction. That is more at the "Strategic" level.*
There is a body of literature much more nuanced using Game Theory as the basis when it comes to lower level engagements and limited strikes. However, the "end" of many of these Game Theory ideas can escalate to MAD doctrine.
Does a low-yiled, 1 kiloton Nuke lobbed at Bakamut automatically lead to MAD? The high-level Nuclear Doctrine says we will respond with overwhelming force if it is an Attack on NATO. What if it is an attack on a non-NATO member?
* Caveat - It has been two decades since I really studied this in school, and it was in the context as Cold War as history. I have not really stayed up-to-date on the topic as a white collar desk jockey doesn't need to know much about Nuclear Strategy and Deterrence for their day-to-day operations.
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Post by pacific on Apr 6, 2023 5:30:24 GMT -5
Yes I know this is the theory behind some of the 'strategic' nuclear weapons that have much lower kilotonage, that you could use them in that role without it progressing to MAD. The issue is that apparently a lot of these weapons have apparently been made by just removing fissible material from existing ICBMs. The early warning systems would have no way of knowing that the ICBM is only of low yield until the moment it explodes, which potentially makes it even more dangerous and provides the pretext for triggering MAD. I think so much around the issue of Nuclear revolves around Putin's mental state and the perceived threats to his power. You have an article like this: www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/russian-defector-sheds-light-on-putin-paranoia-including-secret-train - which paints Putin as someone like Kim Jong Un, or some Howard Hughes-type recluse who views the outside world from a heavily defended bunker, and is losing his grip on reality. Is this real, or is it more smoke and mirrors? You make the west think that you are unstable and give the possibility of using nuclear weapons, making them hopefully back off, but is just an act? It's really interesting.
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