|
Post by Emblematic Wolfblade on Nov 3, 2020 23:35:24 GMT -5
I'm worried about everything in this election. As Beau of the Fifth Column was talking about a while ago, if it isn't a resounding defeat of trump, trumpism wins. The GOP fully embraces it and actively uses it in the future, and eventually, we get trump 2.0, but this time he's competent and can REALLY fuck everything up.
|
|
|
Post by Emblematic Wolfblade on Nov 3, 2020 23:37:40 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 3, 2020 23:44:35 GMT -5
It's kind of cute that he thinks anyone outside the US who isn't an asshole wants Trump to win XD. Though it's great he's finally admitting to Russia's preference. No idea why he thinks India wants Biden. Trump has probably done more to cozy the US up to India than any president before him and the current Indian government almost certainly prefers his stupidly showy anti-China stance to Biden's comparative disinterest in the whole question.
Also, do penguins vote?
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 3, 2020 23:50:07 GMT -5
I'm worried about everything in this election. As Beau of the Fifth Column was talking about a while ago, if it isn't a resounding defeat of trump, trumpism wins. The GOP fully embraces it and actively uses it in the future, and eventually, we get trump 2.0, but this time he's competent and can REALLY fuck everything up. Honestly, it's already baffling it isn't a resounding defeat. There's no excuses this time. Turnout is set to be a record high, not a record low.* Despite all the battles, arguments, and brimfire, the ballot was arguably more accessible this year than it has ever been with numerous states opening the floodgates to less restricted mail-in and early voting. Trump is supposedly the most unpopular president in American history.
If he wins, then the answer won't be that polling is incorrect or even very wrong, it'll be outright ludicrously inaccurate to the ninth absurdity. A Trump win isn't even close to the margin of error going into this election. It's possible that the wave of voters who've never or infrequently voted before could throw all those polls off, but by enough to overcome a 9 point deficit? There are no metrics by which Trump should win and if he does... Well I'm already fucking depressed at the state of the American voter. There's probably an irony in Trump winning a second time after the last 4 years. The Republicans will be absolutely right. Democracy doesn't work and people are too stupid to vote their own best interests.
If he loses, honestly I think trumpism sticking around is a scary but potentially good thing. Let the GOF eat itself. Trumpism remaining a political force that divides the right is a pro, not a con.
*The caveat here, is that not every state counts ballots at the same time. Wisconsin for example won't even start counting absentee and mail ballots until tomorrow. PA likely won't finish mail ballot counting entire for at least two days. It's possible the election already is a blow out and ballots simply haven't been counted yet. If Biden wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Arizona, and Nevada he'd handily win the EC, and he's already nearly 2,000,000 votes ahead of Trump in the popular vote (and that number is likely to keep rising as more votes are counted).
Not that I think a Biden win will amount to much. His first two years will be spent cleaning up messes if he wins. The Democrats will likely chicken out in Congress looking at the current electoral map and be too afraid to do anything meaningful (and then they'll still probably end up in an uphill battle in 2022). Really, the only thing to win at this stage in this moment is booting Trump out. There's, very sadly, nothing else to be gained with the way things are shaping up.
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 4, 2020 0:08:10 GMT -5
Fox News (and this is frankly, the only thing they're actually good at) is currently putting Biden at 223 and Trump at 204. Going ahead and granting Trump the EC votes it seems obvious he's going to win, he'd be at 248. Biden is expected to win Hawaii and Arizona. EDIT: There is apparently a slim chance Biden can still win in Georgia due to heavy delays in the Atlanta count but I'm not optimistic.
It's official. The race will be decided by Michigan and Pennsylvania. Winning either, plus any other state and Trump is reelected. Biden has to win at least one, plus every other state still in play to be elected. If Biden wins both, Trump needs every other state to win.
|
|
|
Post by Emblematic Wolfblade on Nov 4, 2020 0:11:37 GMT -5
I'm worried about everything in this election. As Beau of the Fifth Column was talking about a while ago, if it isn't a resounding defeat of trump, trumpism wins. The GOP fully embraces it and actively uses it in the future, and eventually, we get trump 2.0, but this time he's competent and can REALLY fuck everything up. If he loses, honestly I think trumpism sticking around is a scary but potentially good thing. Let the GOF eat itself. Trumpism remaining a political force that divides the right is a pro, not a con. Trumpism would really require a resounding defeat to go away though, like a VERY decisive defeat. Otherwise, the GOP will embrace it, and everyone will fall in line. I cannot see any reason the GOP will fracture. They're more invested in power than morals, all of them. It's just worse if trump wins, because then it proves trumpism (can we actually just start calling it fascism? I'm just gonna call it fascism from here on) is a viable tactic and something enough of the American people want that won't just make them competitive, but win elections. I want to repeat my most important point:s The GOP will never fracture. Trump is the most likely breaking point, and going by how people are voting so far, it's not a deal-breaker. Even if they hate the man, they'll still vote for him because of party loyalty.
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 4, 2020 0:14:05 GMT -5
Trumpism will become fully embraced if Trump wins this year.
If he loses, I think the opposite will happen. The GOP will further break because of it, not unify around it. They've (the voters and the party at large) already embraced Trumpism and gone all in. If Trump loses the 2020 election we'll see more defectors, not fewer.
|
|
|
Post by Emblematic Wolfblade on Nov 4, 2020 0:22:49 GMT -5
I just don't see any evidence for that. Trump is literally the antithesis of everything they believe supposedly, and they've rallied around him instead of fracturing. More than that actually, it's turned into a cult of personality. All the GOP has to do is keep trotting out "the dem's stole trump's second term, we need to make America great!" and they'll have a solid base of voters.
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 4, 2020 0:26:47 GMT -5
I just don't see any evidence for that. Trump is literally the antithesis of everything they believe supposedly, and they've rallied around him instead of fracturing. More than that actually, it's turned into a cult of personality. All the GOP has to do is keep trotting out "the dem's stole trump's second term, we need to make America great!" and they'll have a solid base of voters. I think the GOF only makes sense when you look at them as pathetic spineless children who want nothing more than the shiny thing they want. They will back whatever seems the best way to get the shiny. Right now that's Trump. If Trump loses, he's no longer a path to the shiny because he just lost. Some will continue to suck his dick, but the GOF has at large never embraced the 'the only way I can lose is if the other guy cheats' narrative of Trump and his most ardent supporters. They're ruthlessly amoral. Not blindingly idiotic. If Trump ceases to be a winning ticket, they'll dump him and the narrative will be they never much liked him anyway.
EDIT: Minnesota is apparently ahead of the curve and is being called for Biden.
|
|
|
Post by Emblematic Wolfblade on Nov 4, 2020 0:31:17 GMT -5
If it was a resounding defeat, sure. But if it's not, they'll adopt it into their tent. They'll allude to it subtly or not so subtly, and the current trumptards will keep supporting them regardless.
If it IS resounding defeat, they'll dump fascism (for now) and trumptards will support the GOP anyways by thinking "those dirty dems stole trump's second term!" for an election or two, forget why they support the GOP and keep supporting the GOP because "that's what they've always done" while being reminded by fox and co that the dems are dirty cheaters who rigged the election to push the GOP out.
What I'm saying is I cannot fathom the GOP fracturing for any reason. Their supporters are not guided by morals or policy, but by a sports team mentality. Their team is the best and right... because it is. Because if they weren't they'd be wrong and that'd be shameful or something because of how they've treated the other side for so long.
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 4, 2020 0:36:05 GMT -5
If it was a resounding defeat, sure. But if it's not, they'll adopt it into their tent. They'll allude to it subtly or not so subtly, and the current trumptards will keep supporting them regardless. This makes more sense to me, but I just don't buy it.
I think the next ten years are going to have a lot of hot internal party politics. Progressives vs moderates on the left, and conservatives vs alt-right on the right. The side that better unifies is going to keep winning into the next decade and that line may well be drawn by the outcome of the 2020 election. If Biden wins, the Democratic party will unite around Moderation + a few progressive hand outs as a winning electoral strategy while the right fractures over the best path forward. The reverse will happen if Trump wins.
|
|
|
Post by Emblematic Wolfblade on Nov 4, 2020 1:05:00 GMT -5
I can see the left fracturing, as the left is a diverse group. I cannot see the right fracturing because they are not an ideologically diverse group. That's the key thing here. Regardless of what the right thinks of trump, they support him because he's of their party. Or, they at least oppose the left. Either way, it doesn't really matter. If they haven't flipped now, they're unlikely to ever flip.
|
|
|
Post by hatoflords on Nov 4, 2020 2:14:15 GMT -5
Well, Bidens odds are looking better but it could still be Trump. There's apparently a lot of optimism that Atlanta could swing Georgia to Biden as the race there has tightened elsewhere. We won't know till tomorrow cause the counters already called it a night for today. Biden is gaining a lead in Nevada (and pollsters are looking about ready to call it for him). Gaining Georgia would almost seem to assure a Biden win. It would give him 254 EC votes, and at that point all he needs is Michigan or PA and he's won. Alternately, Nevada and Wisconsin would be a win. On the other hand, Trump at this point needs almost everything still on the board. He sits at 213.
It's all coming down to the traditional Democratic strongholds in the Rust Belt and Atlanta. Turnout may well end up being the deciding factor in the races.
Control of the Senate meanwhile looks like it may come down to a pair of special elections in Georgia latter (doesn't bode well for Dems), and Michigan.
|
|
|
Post by Disciple of Fate on Nov 4, 2020 2:51:20 GMT -5
Well these results seem to only demonstrate that the slide into the abyss is only being arrested instead of reversed, disappointing if the Senate stays red.
As for Trump. I would sort of fall on Wolfblade's side on this. I feel the GoP might be done with Trump now, but the primary voters might hold enough loyalty for him once Don Jr or Ivanka show up to once again go for a messy takeover. The cult will not see this as a fair loss, so it might not get the traditional loser stench on the Trump brand. The GoP hated Trump and Trumpism in 2016 too.
|
|
|
Post by Disciple of Fate on Nov 4, 2020 3:29:47 GMT -5
There it is, the moment we were all waiting for.
|
|