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Post by semipotentwalrus on Mar 13, 2019 12:21:00 GMT -5
That's what happens when one side throws a tantrum and then demands that the other side negotiate in good faith. It's not my attitude's fault that the Brexit side had absolutely fuckall policy expertise and no plan for how to achieve Brexit beyond waving their hands in the air. These are people who are actively making my life, and the life of my friends, worse. Why on earth would I want the EU to throw Ireland under the bus to solve a problem that we fucking TOLD the Brexit side would happen? The North Ireland situation has been one of the most serious problems with Brexit since before the referendum, but the Brexit side kept plugging their ears and yelling PROJECT FEAR! at everything.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
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Post by tneva82 on Mar 13, 2019 12:28:26 GMT -5
Thanks for the explanation guys, makes total sense now. The media was worthless in describing the gravity of the situation. I don't think a hard border is really that necessary, and it seems to me that the EU is a wee bit unreasonable there. I would do the EU custom/border check between Ireland/NI to EU member states. They have an existing process to do that for non-EU members anyway, so it's not something that should incur serious overheads or delays. Hell, I'd make the Ireland/NI the priority of all EU custom/border check process. But, then again, what do I know... all of this is complicated as all hell. So make ireland submember of eu for sake of uk? Pay all the bills but not get full benefits...yeah that's fair. And there's existing process for eu and non eu members(like uk will be). Not eu and eu checks. Lots of new people need to be hired, delays to goods hurting eu economy...just for sake of uk. If uk wants to be out then be out rather than demand special treatment. Eu will treat uk fairly. As non eu member. But hardcore brexiteers demand eu give the uk access to single market without having to follow the rules. That is unreasonable Whole point of single market and custom union is no checks inside. Once goods/person is cleared from eu/non-eu border countries know those meet standards and tariffs have been paid so no need for checks or tariffs. Giving up on that would be giving up core of what eu is... |
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Post by tneva82 on Mar 13, 2019 12:38:47 GMT -5
Oh and incidently uk plans to try deal with no deal with no checks and lower tariffs. Lower tariffs with wto rules mean this applies to all countries. And is one way so while imports boost exports will suffer. And even uk goverment admits no checks will expose themselves to abuses...why you think eu should allow ireland be exploitable in same way?
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Post by whemblycthulhu on Mar 13, 2019 18:15:20 GMT -5
Good points tneva82 and semipotentwalrus.
Looks to me the least bad option is the no-deal brexit with the harden border between Ireland/NI, which would means updating the Good Friday Agreement.
Failing that... a new election would be needed I would think.
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Post by Least censored on the planet! on Mar 13, 2019 20:00:37 GMT -5
Basically, this whole issue is because the government is a load of morons who decided to put down red lines that nobody asked for and which are incompatible with its existing agreements with other countries. This entire situation would have been avoided if we simply did not leave the customs union (or the EU as a whole). Or alternatively if Ireland and NI would unite and decide which way to go. UK or EU. That's of course one option but not particularly realistic one. Especially NI leaving UK. UK is hell bent on ensuring nobody leaves UK even if they would want to. The UK: “You can't leave the union (of kingdoms). But we are leaving the (European) union. Deal with it” Assholes…
Solution: independent Scotland remains in EU, independent Ireland stays in the EU, the British can join back the EU with no more privileges or go all hard Brexit outsider if they want to.
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Post by adurot on Mar 14, 2019 1:08:52 GMT -5
Just build a wall. I have it on good authority that’s the best way to deal with border issues.
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Post by tneva82 on Mar 14, 2019 5:05:50 GMT -5
Just build a wall. I have it on good authority that’s the best way to deal with border issues. That would be the "hard border" that would inconvenience lots of people, cost lots of money to both Irelands and quite likely trigger The Troubles again where thousands died including mainland so it wasn't even limited to Irish islands.
In other news seems EU leaders are planning on offering _4 year_ extension if UK asks for extension. Guess they are aiming for one longer rather than series of smaller giving more time for UK to sort things out. I think new elections comes also before in that time possibly leading to change of goverment with new PM who might not have same red lines as May has. Those make pretty much impossible to sort out deal that gives both sides what they want. So on that sense long extension gives better chance for SOME real change. If not total revokal of brexit then at least getting rid of the insistence of being able to bring in goods that don't follow EU standards.
(seriously how UK people expect free movement of people to stop AND have open border between irelands? Short of magical new technology that checks people without delaying them only way that would happen would be for EU to put in border around Ireland and UK deciding who gets to come to Ireland...So if person isn't cleared for UK the person doesn't come to Ireland either even if Ireland is only place he plans to visit...Which is bog crazy idea to begin with!)
Reporter went through his notes of brexit vote and what leavers had been promising. Nobody mentioned no deal crashing out. Lots of "we have all the cards, negotiations will be super short giving us all the benefits but no more free movement and no more payments to EU and we can make trade deals everywhere" type of bullshit.
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Post by semipotentwalrus on Mar 14, 2019 5:30:34 GMT -5
The least bad option is to not leave the EU at all.
The leave campaign lied ("We're not going to leave the common market, just the EU!"), cheated (overspending on campaign expenditures, for which there's been convictions in court), and then dumped the whole mess on the people who didn't want Brexit in the first place. That's not even taken into account that the wording of the referendum was a textbook example of how NOT to do a referendum (I study politics, take my word for it).
The drawback of this would be that it will disillusion a lot of people who voted for Brexit. They'll feel cheated, which I cannot blame them for. The current woes can all be traced back to the complete clusterfuck the referendum was. You can't hold a workable referendum where one alternative is "something else lol" without having defined what that something else is, and you sure as fuck shouldn't then treat such a referendum as binding when it wasn't.
In the end, the issue is that Britain is in a self-dug hole. The British are dissatisfied with the fisheries politics, and then send Nigel "Gitface" Farage (who was the leading figure for leave and who has since left the country) to not do his job as HEAD OF THE FUCKING FISHERIES COMMISSION. Britain has every possibility to be a leading player in the EU; instead the country's doing the diplomatic equivalent of pounding your fists at the floor and wailing.
God I can rant on this subject.
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Post by tneva82 on Mar 14, 2019 5:32:57 GMT -5
Asking people again is supposedly "undemocratic". Yet somehow May presenting same deal over and over and over for voting is very much democratic. 3rd vote for her deal is coming next week. And there's even time for 4th! Surprised she doesn't do it daily vote...
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Post by tneva82 on Mar 14, 2019 8:03:30 GMT -5
"Conservative MP Ben Bradley says if the prime minister can get some further concessions for her deal she may be able to convince some waverers to back it."
Good example of why EU was not too interested in concessions to begin with. Give some, have May fail to get majority anyway, get asked for some more. And eternal loop.
Howabout change of pace. Rather than demand more from EU provide deal UK house actually gets majority. As it is we know what doesn't get majority but nobody has bloody idea what it takes for UK parliament to get behind...
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Post by semipotentwalrus on Mar 14, 2019 15:41:00 GMT -5
Looks like it'll be "delayed", whatever that means.
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Post by whemblycthulhu on Mar 14, 2019 19:34:00 GMT -5
Looks like it'll be "delayed", whatever that means. The March 29th hard brexit is still there. I'm guessing they'll need to rescind Article 50 now? |
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Post by Least censored on the planet! on Mar 14, 2019 20:50:09 GMT -5
Asking people again is supposedly "undemocratic". The first referendum was democratic, and the second one isn't, because… reason! It's like when you elect a president. You vote once to elect him, and if you are ever asked to vote again about that guy, it's undemocratic. If they get elected for life, it's more democratic!
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Post by tneva82 on Mar 15, 2019 3:29:00 GMT -5
Looks like it'll be "delayed", whatever that means. Well not set in stone. There's super slim chance 3rd time is the charm and May's vote would be passed next wednesday and super rushed all the laws. Biggest influence for this would be hardcore brexiteers scared witless about prospect of multi year extension EU is considering(which is most likely way to reverse brexit. Long vote, new elections in due time in UK and people vote into majority parliament that wants to cancel brexit. Not big chance but with current parliament with May's red lines it's going to be crashing out unless threat of no brexit makes hardcore brexiteers agree on the deal just to prevent no brexit) . And of course EU could turn down UK's request. It requires unanimous agreement by all 27 countries. Some to whom Nigel Farage has been lobbying to turn down. If he succeeds with even one no extension period. Or UK can't provide convincing reason to EU that convinces them it won't be more of the same.
Any extension is on graces of EU. UK can only ask for it.
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Post by whemblycthulhu on Mar 19, 2019 16:51:40 GMT -5
A week from friday is the brexit date...
Been reading the BBC... looks May is scrambling to try to get her deal voted again for a third time...has ran into major procedural issues.
Eeech... looking like a hard brexit is coming eh?
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