It's the Economy, Stupid!

[easye]

As gasoline prices fall, U.S. inflation cools to 3.2%

www.npr.org/2023/11/14/1212857267/cpi-october-us-inflation-gas-prices-consumer

I think the Feds target is around 2.0%, so we are above target. However, it has slowed considerably from the 9% it was this time last year. I guess the Inflation Reduction Act worked?

[easye]

Hey guys, this time we should believe him..... honest.....

Jamie Dimon says to be prepared for recession

www.cnn.com/2023/11/29/investing/jamie-dimon-recession-jpmorgan-economy/index.html

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a stark warning to Wall Street on Wednesday: Inflation could rise further and recession is not off the table.

“A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared,” he said at the 2023 New York Times DealBook Summit in New York. “Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession.”

Governments across the globe need more money, he said, to fund the green economy, remilitarize and to address energy crises — and that will all be inflationary.

Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks during the Institute of International Finance (IIF) annual membership meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022. This year's conference theme is "The Search for Stability in an Era of Uncertainty, Realignment and Transformation."

“I’m cautious about the economy,” he said. The labor market in the United States has been resilient, but “inflation is hurting people.”

[Haighus]

I mean, it is plausible. IIRC the only reason we have avoided an official recession in the UK is because the boomers are still spending lots. So one generation is business as usual whilst the majority of those younger are experiencing a recession.

I'd not be surprised if the US was experiencing a similar phenomenon.

[herzlos]

We seem to be more or less in a recession as far as everyone but the statistics are concerned. No-one I know is feeling good about the short term future or money.

But then that's because inflation (peaked at 11%) is so far ahead of economic growth (0.3%)

[skyth]

Well, depends on how well the Republicans manage to sabotage the economy here.

[Haighus]

Nov 29, 2023 15:08:13 GMT -5 herzlos said:

We seem to be more or less in a recession as far as everyone but the statistics are concerned. No-one I know is feeling good about the short term future or money.

But then that's because inflation (peaked at 11%) is so far ahead of economic growth (0.3%)

There is a group with savings and lower costs (such as mortgage paid off) who are feeling it much less and still spending. That is keeping the economy afloat in the statistics, and also keeping inflation up a bit.

[easye]

Yeah, but Mr. Dimon has been saying this for the last 5 years or so. Eventually he will be right!

[easye]

www.npr.org/2023/12/28/1221401948/bankruptcies-corporate-rise-inflation-2023-interest-rates

Why corporate bankruptcies were up in 2023 despite the improving economy

A confluence of forces including rising interest rates, stubborn inflation earlier in the year and companies dealing with crushing debt piled up during an era of easy money have resulted in one of the busiest years for corporate bankruptcies in more than a decade.

According to S&P Global Intelligence, there were 591 corporate bankruptcies in 2023, one of the highest bankruptcy totals since 2011. Only 2020, with 639 corporate bankruptcies, witnessed more.

I wonder how much of that debt went to Shareholders, Officers, and M&A guys?

[easye]

That recession should be hitting any day now...

The US economy added 216,000 jobs in December

www.cnn.com/2024/01/05/economy/jobs-report-december-final/index.html

New York
CNN
—
The US economy added 216,000 jobs in December, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, blowing past expectations and capping off a year of resilience in the labor market.

The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.

Economists were expecting net job gains of 160,000 for December and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.8%.

[mdgv2]

Caution on that.

The UK Government has been wanking on about low unemployment. But you need to understand what they define that as. Even a Zero Hours contract counts as being employed, even if your employer never gives you any hours.

Such things can be quite easily massaged.

[herzlos]

IIRC you can only be counted as employed if you've had a shift in the last 2 weeks. But you won't be counted if you're on a job seeker program, not actively looking for work etc. so the figures are pretty much meaningless.

[easye]

Plus, there is "underemployment" where people have jobs but want different and better ones.

However, the source of truth has always stayed the same, so these can be useful for directional data more than anything else.

[Haighus]

UK is officially in a recession:

www.ft.com/content/b48cfce5-6a0b-4811-9e17-847da43d9a33

Overall, it is a pretty mild one and is more stagnation, but from what I understand this recession is much more real for the poorer in the nation.

[herzlos]

It's been a long time coming. What it actually means to the everyday person who's already been screwed lately I don't know.

[easye]

The Tory-cession?