Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Feb 14, 2024 3:48:57 GMT -5
Further to what nfs said, the situation in the UK is not as dire as in the US in my opinion. I think that Trump is much more likely to try for dictatorship in the immediate future than the current Conservatives in the UK.
That may not be true for the Tories in 5 years.
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Post by redchimera on Feb 14, 2024 5:44:36 GMT -5
Agreed. There isn't the luxury of choice. People who don't vote and claim they're 'above it all' or 'keeping the morale high ground' are just helping the Conservatives. And wrong. And stupid. This attitude is how the UK and US so successfully protect two party systems. It is the reason that supposedly centre left parties present Blairs, Bidens, Clintons, and Starmers. When swathes of the population will scream that they wish to be taken for granted and will castigate their peers for not allowing themselves to be. Labour will be the largest party. It would be really great if they didn't have a majority. My attitude is that you should vote! I'd love proportional representation but we've got what we've got. Vote for whoever who think is best for your area. Labour, Liberal, an independent fighting for a local hospital or some other issue. Hell, even Conservative if the candidate has put the hard yards in doing real work for their constituency and you feel that should be rewarded. But vote. Even if it means voting for 'least worst'. Oh, and here's how to really preserve a 2 party system: www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3WTlyuhDs0&ab_channel=thejuicemedia
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 14, 2024 6:33:57 GMT -5
That's a tricky one. One of our neighbouring constituencies is Romsey, which is currently held by Caroline Nokes for the Conservatives. I generally hear she's considered to be a good local MP, and, as far as the Tories go, one of the better ones! But her voting record still looks typically Tory, and at the end of the day while officially, technically, one is voting for the local MP and not the Prime Minister - the actual effect is that a vote for her is a vote for the Conservative PM, a Conservative government and Conservative policies that do us no favours.
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 700
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Post by herzlos on Feb 14, 2024 9:26:59 GMT -5
As much as a Conservative MP may be doing good things locally, you just know that at Westminster that means an additional vote for whatever the party wants which is universally awful. If they actually had a free vote I'd agree with you that they'd be a viable candidate, but any vote for a Conservative MP gives them more Westminster power and another majority could be catastrophic.
And with all due respect, even is a Conservative MP is the nicest person ever and does great things locally, they are still endorsing and supporting the existing party.
I really hate FPTP but it's what we've got until a rational leadership comes in. It's just so crude compared to the STV that Scotland already uses for the Holyrood elections.
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mdgv2
OT Cowboy
Posts: 487
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Post by mdgv2 on Feb 16, 2024 5:15:57 GMT -5
Two big wins for Labour in by-elections last night.
Rishi Sunak is bleating how voting for anyone but the Tories will put Labour in power.
Yes, Mr Sunak. We know. Maybe try not being an incompetent arsehole atop a hill of incompetent arseholes? And thanks for the recession whilst British Gas report a ten fold increase in profits.
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 16, 2024 5:18:29 GMT -5
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 700
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Post by herzlos on Feb 16, 2024 5:48:00 GMT -5
I'd heard some guff about by-elections being particularly bad for the incumbent government and that it apparently doesn't mean that much. Any truth to it?
I'm always wary that these victories are just low turnout protest votes and that we get complacent and end up with more Tories in the GE.
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 16, 2024 6:44:25 GMT -5
You're not wrong, and certainly that will be how the Tories will desperately try to spin it. But - they lost a seat with a previous majority of 18,000. That's pretty major.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Feb 16, 2024 6:53:58 GMT -5
I'd heard some guff about by-elections being particularly bad for the incumbent government and that it apparently doesn't mean that much. Any truth to it? I'm always wary that these victories are just low turnout protest votes and that we get complacent and end up with more Tories in the GE. Well, this is the worst Tory government for byelections since WWII, so it is definitely unusual. In addition, quite a lot of byelections seem to be happening due to misconduct on behalf of the incumbents... Normally there is less exposure to byelections in the first place.
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 16, 2024 7:19:00 GMT -5
Yeah. Wellingborough by-election was triggered by the (eventual) suspension of Peter Bone, who was alleged to have bullied an underling and shoved his cock in his face in a hotel room. I say eventual as it happened about 6 years ago... So the Tories ran Peter Bone's fucking girlfriend as their candidate to replace him. Fucks sake.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Feb 16, 2024 7:19:58 GMT -5
Also, I can't help but see the humour in Mr Bone and Mr Pincher both being involved in sexual misconduct...
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 16, 2024 7:26:23 GMT -5
Nominative determinism doesn't always work. Look at James Cleverley!
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Post by crispy78 on Feb 16, 2024 7:28:00 GMT -5
As an aside, my grandad's urologist was a Mr Dick. My nana always used to refer to him so earnestly. Fucking slayed us.
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Post by redchimera on Feb 16, 2024 7:46:21 GMT -5
It was a desperately low turnout, so the Tories may be hoping that come the day the good people will vote like they're supposed to. but a fair chunk (of utter madmen) got up and voted for Reform which is probably giving them more sleepless nights. And while, yes, in the normal course of events at by-election is used as a protest vote to warn the incumbents, quite a few political commentators are comparing this to the lead up to the 1997 GE, where the local losses were the build up to the Tory defeat.
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nfe
OT Initiate
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Post by nfe on Feb 19, 2024 5:19:05 GMT -5
They're definitely notably bad - but low turnouts correlate with Labour wins generally in recent times so do need caveated a bit: Blair's landslide was the lowest turnout since 1964, it dropped through the floor to below 60% in 2001 for another Labour landslide, then climbed when they lost 60-odd seats in 2005 before climbing again for their defeat in 2010. Lots of other factors, too, of course.
I also think the scale of expected Tory defeat is being massively overstated in most of the press - there will be lots of credit given for them doing much better than expected in the aftermath.
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