And the Rest... The rest of World politics thread.

[Haighus]

Apparently the impact of the Consulate attack is likely to be felt by US deployments in the Middle East. After an initial flurry of attacks on US outposts by various militant groups following October 7th leading to the deaths of 3 US soldiers, apparently a deal had been brokered with Iran and Iranian pressure on the militants markedly reduced the attacks on US bases.

Now those attacks may start up again in direct response to the Israeli attack on the Consulate, because Iran holds the US partially responsible for the actions of its proxy in the same manner as the US partially holds Iran responsible for attacks by Iranian proxies.

In other words, the rogue actions of Israel are threatening the safety of their own allies.

I am not alone in thinking Israel is trying to pull the US (+/- any European allies) into a protracted war in West Asia to prevent US attention from pivoting to East Asia. The latter would likely see US support for Israel fade in the long term. These are not the actions of a state simply trying to survive, they are actively poking a bear and assuming their own friendly bear will protect them.

[Disciple of Fate]

Seems the Israeli army uses AI to approve targets for strikes, which is not very accurate and the decision making cause behind most civilian casualties. From the article, the 'problems' with this:

The margin for error is 10%. Officers only spend 20 seconds on average approving targets. The system also targets family homes, because targets aren't mobile there overnight. Killing a Hamas grunt is worth 15 civilians. Etc.

It's a long article, but provides a very dystopian perspective on the use of AI in war.

www.972mag.com/lavender-ai-israeli-army-gaza/

[Disciple of Fate]

Apr 3, 2024 3:20:00 GMT -5 Haighus said:

...

I wouldn't even say this is 'the state', so to speak. This is a political strategy by the right-wing extremists currently in government to hold onto power.

[dabbler]

They can't pass the buck to AI as the decision maker. They're deciding to prosecute this war and target civvies, they can't palm it off with an excuse like that

[Disciple of Fate]

Well, the Israeli official stance denies that AI is so heavily involved in decision making. The AI making the decision doesn't absolve the one who acts upon that decision of any potential war crime. It just explains where the differences come from when trying to compare to previous wars.

[Haighus]

Ah, the advance of technology. Top militaries have gone from indiscriminately killing civilians to discriminately killing civilians.

Now they can reasonably accurately predict the number of civilians killed per military target as "acceptable collateral".

[mdgv2]

Also, AI can only obey its own rules. If you say “no targetting civilians”…it can’t target civilians. It has no creativity.

[bobtheinquisitor]

Looks like the Haredi are now no longer exempt from the draft. The ultra-orthodox in Israel are going apeshit and threatening to pull out of Netanyahu’s coalition, which would force an election he would lose. However, if the yeshiva students are not drafted, the other parts of his coalition will walk. Most Israelis want the ultra-orthodox drafted and out of politics. I’m not sure how or why Netanyahu deployed this political Kobayashi Maru.

[Haighus]

Apr 4, 2024 14:09:25 GMT -5 bobtheinquisitor said:

Looks like the Haredi are now no longer exempt from the draft. The ultra-orthodox in Israel are going apeshit and threatening to pull out of Netanyahu’s coalition, which would force an election he would lose. However, if the yeshiva students are not drafted, the other parts of his coalition will walk. Most Israelis want the ultra-orthodox drafted and out of politics. I’m not sure how or why Netanyahu deployed this political Kobayashi Maru.

I think he is simply running out of options and has no good choices left the make. The entire last 6 months have been borrowed time for Netenyahu.

[Disciple of Fate]

Netanyahu didn't really make the decision on the draft, if that is what you meant by the ST reference, his hand is being forced by the courts.

The sizable ultra orthodox minority is only going to become larger and more problematic to the functioning of the state if nothing is changed.

[Disciple of Fate]

Apr 4, 2024 13:35:04 GMT -5 mdgv2 said:

Also, AI can only obey its own rules. If you say “no targetting civilians”…it can’t target civilians. It has no creativity.

Oh no, this is much worse, this system targets everyone suspected of being a Hamas militant, with a quoted militant-civilian casualty ratio of 1:15 on the lower rank end being chosen as acceptable by the program. It inflicts massive collateral damage without 'purposefully' targetting civilians.

[mdgv2]

Which is why we can’t blame the AI. Because at the business end? There’s a human setting the rules.

[nfe]

Apr 4, 2024 15:01:27 GMT -5 Disciple of Fate said:

Netanyahu didn't really make the decision on the draft, if that is what you meant by the ST reference, his hand is being forced by the courts.

The sizable ultra orthodox minority is only going to become larger and more problematic to the functioning of the state if nothing is changed.

Nobody has made a decision yet. The Attorney General has said that drafting Haredim (men only, unlike the rest of the population) must begin and that funding to Yeshivot teaching draft-dodgers should stop but Bibi isn't actually obliged to begin doing so.

I'm not convinced Shas and United Torah would actually walk out if drafting begins. It would only lead to a centre right government who would dear them anyway.

On the other hand, actually attempting to draft Haredim will be a bureaucratic nightmare, leading to chasing loads of people for fines and radically expanding the prison population.

I wonder if Likud will simply legislate for a Haredim draft with a start date well into the future in the hope that the spotlight thrown on it by the Gaza war will be gone and that they can quietly withdraw it later.

[Disciple of Fate]

True, it would have been better to write that making a decision was being forced on him.

I assume that even putting it off to a future date won't allow Likud to quietly shelve it. As far as I know, this issue was already playing for a longer time, Gaza just gave it a larger spotlight.

To be fair, relieving 12% of the population of their obligations to the state, while also reaping the benefits of the state, is hard to sell politically. Especially as that group will just grow larger. It was tenable when they were a tiny minority, but isn't it estimated that they will make up a third of the Israeli population in roughly two generations?

[bobtheinquisitor]

They’re also just the worst.

I can see how imprisoning a bunch or causing them to flee the state would have a massive benefit for Israel.