And the Rest... The rest of World politics thread.

[Disciple of Fate]

I think Herzlos might want to change his quote, because that is a different paper discussed in the same article as the government one. With the caveat that this is not confirmed policy:

The leaked document, first reported in Israeli media, was compiled by an Israeli government research agency known as the Intelligence Ministry and was dated Oct. 13 — six days after Hamas led deadly attacks on Israel and the Israeli government declared war against the Palestinian militant group, which controls Gaza.

...

A Hebrew-English translation of the document, published by the Israeli website +972 Magazine, outlined three options regarding the civilian population of Gaza.

One would see the civilians remain in Gaza under the rule of the Palestinian Authority — which was ejected from Gaza after a weeklong 2007 war that put Hamas in power — while the second suggested an attempt to establish "a local Arab non-Islamist political leadership" to govern the population.

Neither of these options were considered feasible strategies to create ideological change and deter future militancy against Israel.

The third option, the evacuation of civilians in Gaza to Sinai, would "yield positive, long-term strategic outcomes for Israel," the document stated.

The proposal does not indicate this would be a temporary relocation.

"In the first stage, tent cities will be established in the area of Sinai," it reads. "The next stage includes the establishment of a humanitarian zone to assist the civilian population of Gaza and the construction of cities in a resettled area in northern Sinai."

For context:

But the paper does not exist in isolation.

An Israeli think-tank, the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, released a paper inferring the situation presented "a unique and rare opportunity to evacuate the whole Gaza Strip in co-ordination with the Egyptian government."

[herzlos]

Good spot, post corrected.

[pacific]

Oct 25, 2023 13:02:58 GMT -5 Disciple of Fate said:

Well slightly over half of the Isrealis keep rewarding him by voting for him. I don't think it matters much for his career, which would hopefully be over once the dust clears.

The western response was expected, no matter who would be in charge.

Just listened to this Sam Harris podcast, where he spoke with a journalist that has spent a good portion of his life in Israel and the middle east, Graeme Wood, and his thoughts were that Netanyahu is definitely toast (his words), along with the other incumbent politicians, when the dust settles. Apparently a good number of Israelis had voted for Netanyahu on the promise of security, and this is now regarded as the worst atrocity inflicted on the Jewish people since the holocaust and it was allowed to happen on Israeli soil; he will not be forgiven for it. 
And this is Israel's 9/11, but in many ways is viewed as being worse. 

Link here for anyone interested, although I will warn that some bits are extremely graphic in terms of the description of events, and I wish I had not heard: www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/339-the-infernal-logic-of-jihad

One interesting bit from it was regarding the border that the Hamas fighters crossed is meant to be so heavily defended that a bird cannot cross it without the IDF noticing. And yet large groups of Hamas fighters (and then following, groups of looters and other 'independents' were able to come across after them) and then inflict numerous atrocities, over a significant period of time, without being stopped. Some evidence that Hamas were surprised at how easily they managed to accomplish this. Wood commented that there will be investigations into what happened and how, he thought it may have partly been due to the IDF being over-stretched and lots of soldiers deployed in the West bank to assist with the settlements and expansions there. 

After hearing about some of the atrocities committed I am not quite sure how you walk back from it.. and now further civilian killings in Gaza by the IDF, yes they won't have the level of depravity enacted by Hamas, but the site of crying parents lifting dead children from rubble will be (is already) common place. I think Blinken & Co are going to have an enormous task trying to stop it from escalating. 

[semipotentwalrus]

Nov 6, 2023 5:50:29 GMT -5 pacific said:

Wood commented that there will be investigations into what happened and how, he thought it may have partly been due to the IDF being over-stretched and lots of soldiers deployed in the West bank to assist with the settlements and expansions there. 

After hearing about some of the atrocities committed I am not quite sure how you walk back from it.. and now further civilian killings in Gaza by the IDF, yes they won't have the level of depravity enacted by Hamas, but the site of crying parents lifting dead children from rubble will be (is already) common place. I think Blinken & Co are going to have an enormous task trying to stop it from escalating. 

This is part of what I referred to when I posited that the Israeli far right has to go in order for Israel to ever have a peaceful future. They're more interested in pushing and protecting settlements and their own ideological crusade than protecting their fellow Israelis, let alone civilians in Gaza.

[Disciple of Fate]

One of his far right nutcase pet ministers even opined that Israel could drop a nuclear bomb on Gaza, that the minister wasn't fired tells you everything you need to know.

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-disciplines-israeli-minister-who-voiced-openness-hypothetical-nuclear-2023-11-05/

[herzlos]

This might be a difficult one for Israel to hand-wave away: Hamas are saying that they can't find 60 of the hostages due to the airstrikes, though 23 are thought to be trapped under rubble.

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-armed-wing-more-than-60-hostages-are-missing-due-israeli-airstrikes-2023-11-04/

Which leads to the obvious; what was Israel expecting to happen to hostages by bombing the areas they may be in? Will they try and frame this as Hamas having killed them by taking them to the West Bank?

[Haighus]

Nov 7, 2023 6:12:58 GMT -5 herzlos said:

This might be a difficult one for Israel to hand-wave away: Hamas are saying that they can't find 60 of the hostages due to the airstrikes, though 23 are thought to be trapped under rubble.

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-armed-wing-more-than-60-hostages-are-missing-due-israeli-airstrikes-2023-11-04/

Which leads to the obvious; what was Israel expecting to happen to hostages by bombing the areas they may be in? Will they try and frame this as Hamas having killed them by taking them to the West Bank?

Yeah, I didn't understand the airstrike approach of hostage management. Seems very counterproductive to Israel at the very least. It does not suggest that the Israeli government/the IDF actually care about rescuing the hostages in any meaningful capacity, which I doubt is going to be a good look domestically.

[Disciple of Fate]

They will probably just say Hamas is lying about it, because that is the playbook for most of what is happening. Permanently missing.

[Haighus]

Yeah, probably.

I think there will still be a lot of questions domestically about why they did not do a prisoner swap to free the hostages before they started relandscaping the entire city via high explosives.

[Least censored on the planet!]

Nov 7, 2023 6:25:53 GMT -5 Haighus said:

Yeah, I didn't understand the airstrike approach of hostage management.

I think the idea is “Hamas, stop trying to take hostages, it just doesn't work we will bomb you just the same”.

[semipotentwalrus]

The strike against Tesla in Sweden escalates. The transportation union is now refusing to load or unload Tesla cars at 4 major ports and will expand the strike to every port in Sweden on the 17th if Tesla doesn't give in. The dockworker's union has joined in as well. The janitor and caretaker union is also joining in, as is the electrical worker's union.

[Emblematic Wolfblade]

I wonder how elon musk's fans are trying to spin this as some 50d chess move. Maybe they're just blatantly lying to themselves or ignoring it.

[bobtheinquisitor]

Sweden doesn’t exist, you sheeple.

[pacific]

I think in the Israel/hostage situation, Israel had to do *something*. This probably wasn't the right thing, and now a lot of those hostages are most likely dead, either by the air strikes or because Hamas have killed them, but I don't think there were many other military strike options open to them and they could not go in with ground forces at that point - other than special forces attempts, which I am sure will have happened as well but we have not heard about.

But the killing and atrocity that took place within Israel were so bad, there was no way that they could not do something in response. I am not saying I agree with it, and now many more innocents will die, but that was the very predictable outcome.

[Haighus]

Nov 7, 2023 11:47:08 GMT -5 Least censored on the planet! said:

Nov 7, 2023 6:25:53 GMT -5 Haighus said:

Yeah, I didn't understand the airstrike approach of hostage management.

I think the idea is “Hamas, stop trying to take hostages, it just doesn't work we will bomb you just the same”.

Fair point, albeit a very callous strategy in the short term. I remained unconvinced this is a strategy that will have good enough domestic support.