And the Rest... The rest of World politics thread.

[redchimera]

That must be why Blinken is there in person, to try and moderate the response, at least a little. But Israel feels like it has the right to do whatever it wants.

[herzlos]

Israel has warned 1.1m people to leave Northern Gaza ahead of a boots-on-ground invasion* in 24 hours time: www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67096916

The UN has told them to withdraw since it's impossible.

There's no way for these people to leave Gaza entirely, they just need to move to the South, so I guess that Israel will absorb Northern Gaza over the weekend**.

For reasons I don't understand, the UK is sending a ship and some weaponry over to help Israel. What's Israel at risk of here that they need help?

*I'm not sure invasion is the correct term, since they are already essentially an occupying force.
**I'm also surprised they are allowed to go to war on the Sabbath.

[Disciple of Fate]

Quite a few European countries are lending a small amount of (military) support to Israel, I assume it's just so they get that PR and do a minimum so as not to face any later accusations.

As for invasion, I think you can call it that. Israel officialy left Gaza in 2005 I believe, so they don't normally have an occupation presence inside Gaza like they do on the West Bank.

For the Sabbath, they can make religious exceptions, usually in the vein of preserving life (i.e. the hostages). It's how El Al was allowed to fly on the Sabbath to return reservists from other countries.

[nfe]

Preserving/protecting life allows suspension of all shabbat prohibitions. Loads of Talmudic precedent (and Tanakh - Joshua wages war on shabbat, as does Judas Maccabee).

There are orthodox soldiers fighting for Ukraine just now, and a rabbi that got a decent amount of press coverage for breaking shabbat to collect busloada of Ukrainian refugee kids.

[herzlos]

It's really kind of weird that everyone seems to be framing the Gaza thing as a regular war, when it's so lop-sided. But then I guess we saw the same with Ukraine.

Now Iran are making threats : news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-latest-updates-gaza-sky-news-live-blog-12978800

Does this have the potential to turn into another big Middle Eastern Conflict?

Is there a point where UN or the West will step in and tell Israel enough?

Will Israel stop this ground offensive before Palestine ceases to exist?

[redchimera]

An IDF spokesman is denying there is a humanitarian crisis is Gaza, as well as saying the status of the Gaza strip is up for "all kinds of end game" which kind of reinforces my suspicion that the mass evacuation south is a step to annexing the whole northern half of the strip.

[herzlos]

There's only no humanitarian crisis in Gaza if you don't regard the Palestinians as humans.

But you're right, I'd be surprised if Northern Gaza wasn't annexed. Having the population abandon it 'willingly' to let them kill anyone left and reclaim an unoccupied area doesn't sound *quite* as bad as chasing them out. I can't see why they'd stop there though, given that the rest of the world doesn't seem to care.

[pacific]

I was listening to a podcast that stated Israel hasn't been 'poking under the ribs' of Palestine at all over recent years; No occupation troops, no continued settlement expansion and there have even been some initiatives to try and deal with the inequality, such as the transfer of many thousands of Palestinians daily into Israel as labour as part of an employment scheme, and which had reportedly been quite successful.

Has anyone else read any info on this? If this is the case, then you would otherwise have to put this down to Hamas/fundamentalist Islamic efforts to just attack Israel, rather than it being a lashing out/response to oppression (which I had thought was the case until listening to this).

[Disciple of Fate]

I mean, this isn't true? Occupation on the West Bank has steadily continued with Israeli government sanctioned provocations such as the far right/nationalist march in East Jerusalem, ongoing evictions (where Isrealis can reclaim properties from 50 years ago but not vice versa for Palestinians) and of course security operations (no occupation, but constant invasion, what is the difference?) that always lead to collateral damage.

For Gaza you could argue that Israel 'only' retaliates and that the open air prison is 15 years of status quo (i.e. nothing new in recent years), but that would be a very hard argument to make in relation to Israel "not poking".

The recent Isreali governments haven't been exactly friendly to the Palestinians, with Bibi only ruling with the help of extremists. We just hear very little of the steady hum of 'regular' occupation over the last years.

That doesn't excuse events of course, but to claim the Isreali government isn't (politically benefitting from) poking the bear a little is just dishonest.

www.amnesty.org/en/location/middle-east-and-north-africa/israel-and-occupied-palestinian-territories/report-israel-and-occupied-palestinian-territories/
www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-repeals-law-that-banned-four-west-bank-settlements-2023-03-21/
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66083295

[redchimera]

The only efforts at an equitable and peaceful coexistence has been from individuals and small-scale organizations, with no state backing from either side. The Israeli government certainly don't crow "Look! See what we're doing!" We only hear about them when a journalist writes a piece about them. They're swimming against the tide and are easily swept away by events.

[Haighus]

Hasn't the PLO been trying to follow a peaceful route for the last few decades? Unfortunately they have been pushed out of power in Gaza in particular, by Hamas and Israel.

[pacific]

Thanks @disciple of Fate - that's interesting to know. I wonder if the podcast was referring to Gaza then, rather than the larger West Bank which has maintained a 'status quo' of oppression - will have to have another listen. 

[Disciple of Fate]

Oct 17, 2023 8:12:23 GMT -5 pacific said:

Thanks @disciple of Fate - that's interesting to know. I wonder if the podcast was referring to Gaza then, rather than the larger West Bank which has maintained a 'status quo' of oppression - will have to have another listen. 

I think the problem is that you can't view Gaza and the West Bank as separate entities for 'poking'. Sure, they are divided in government, but both populations consider themselves Palestinians. Why would the Palestinians see what the Israeli government does in a vacuum of (what they consider) occupation lines on a map?

[Haighus]

Looks like a simple swiss-cheese failure where multiple issues lined up and a major incident occurred as a result.

Apparently likely to be a combination of complacency, hubris, overreliance on tech, and simply not connecting the dots in the right way.

Very similar to January 6 2020 in the US, except more deadly.

[Disciple of Fate]

The greatest intelligence agencies in the world could have never let *insert here* happen, because they are infallible. This is why Hamas/Hezbollah/etc. were eradicated by Isreal decades ago.