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Post by herzlos on Nov 12, 2024 7:13:46 GMT -5
I can't argue with that.
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Post by pacific on Nov 12, 2024 8:13:59 GMT -5
Quite an interesting comment I read following some of the accounts now requesting the Democrats call for a recount is that lots of the Russian bot users which were previously spreading 2020 conspiracy theories are now being repurposed to further the Democrat account claims. I suppose this makes sense, they just want to cause discord and diminish faith in the system, no matter which side of the political divide.
My own thoughts are that Nixon couldn't bug a hotel room without it finishing his presidency. I know we are now living in a very different world, where Trump doing something like that would only make 20 minutes news on 3pm on a Tuesday, but surely some sort of mass vote-rigging system would have a) required a level of complicity, (ironically) deep-state control, level of competence that we can absolutely be convinced they don't have. They would have got the instructions delivered to Four Seasons Landscaping by accident 2) Someone would have talked or come forward with unequivocal evidence of vote rigging, it's impossible to keep these complex conspiracies in the dark, history has shown us.
I think far more likely (and from what I have read) the polling systems were terrified of being completely wrong again and so removed outliers (for either an overwhelming Harris OR Trump win) and also I think in some cases it seems to me, as an outsider, that voting for Trump in some areas is seen as shameful. But in the same way that some women would have kept voting for Harris away from their husbands, a lot of others might have voted for Trump and kept quiet about it.
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Post by easye on Nov 12, 2024 9:57:15 GMT -5
Like that, you think people like that will keep their aggression in check now they have license not to because they won?
No. I imagine I'd be pretty pissed off in easy's position as well, I just genuinely do not get the point of the post. Maybe that's a me thing, I just genuinely do not get the point other than if it's catharsis (and if it is then fair). It might be that I think the comment was awfully close to judging people for not succeeding at forming relationships and if that wasn't the intention it's my bad.
It has been a long time, and I have come back now. The point of the post was very angry. If you look at the demographics and the tactics of the election, Trump turned out Men in massive numbers, especially the no-college degree men. It is no secret that Men are getting more conservative, and more religious than women are. Women are becoming more educated than men. This leads to a disconnect between Men and Women, and Men are scared about it. It is pretty clear to me why Non-college educated Men are Trump supports across all demographics. They have four things to fear right now: Automation taking their jobs, Competition from women in work and society, Newcomers replacing them as they have few or easily replicated skills, and outsourcing. Trump spoke to at least three of the four concerns by: 1. Offering to put women back as second-class citizens around abortion rights. Women can't compete for jobs if they are pregnant. Women can't leave their man if they need his to support themselves and kids. 2. Protection from Newcomers through deportations 3. Stop outsourcing via Tariffs However, some of these same arguments are also persuasive for College educated men, because they are also facing Automation and Women as a threat to their "Place in the world". Biden actually did a lot for Red areas with the CHIPS act and the Infrastructure Reduction Act, with the majority of benefits going to Red areas to create jobs and build infrastructure, but those actual accomplishments didn't earn a single vote. The ACA primarily helps rural people, but that didn't win any significant rural votes either. The caps on Insulin prices in Medicare was a huge win for rural voters, but they did not recognize it. So, Democrats strategy to help and reach rural voters was a colossal failure. The Dem accomplishments never penetrated the information bubble here at all. Secondly, I have long advocated that Trump's appeal is not logical. It is emotional and psychological. As I stated, much of it stems from unresolved trauma that effects both Men and Women. I talk with, work with, and connect with many MAGA folks. None of them are dumb, but they have these things in common: 1. They only have a vague idea of how the Government actually works 2. They live in an information bubble 3. They almost all have an unresolved trauma that they are acting out on. For most of the Men, it is a bad divorce/relationship where they lost their kids, income, and/or home. Some women too. Other Trauma's include job loss (which is devastating in rural areas as there are few alternatives), death of a loved one, personal illness, etc. They wanted help, but did not get it; and therefore do not want anyone else to get it either. They often do not even recognize this in themselves. The point is two fold. First, MAGA is not going away as it is psychological. The US does not have the Mental Health capabilities, and most rural people would reject Mental Health aid anyway. Secondly, Democrats lost Men because of the growing divide between Men and Women in the US culturally, socially, and educationally. That is also not going to go away. Besides the usual, Urban vs Rural divide this is a new and growing demographic shift. |
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Post by herzlos on Nov 12, 2024 10:37:26 GMT -5
That paints a grim picture. Can you see any reasonable way forward?
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Post by easye on Nov 12, 2024 11:00:35 GMT -5
No, because it is not just the US. It is happening across the Western world.
Edit: Also, you have to understand that anyone talking about the Economy is lying to themselves. In my heavily Trump area, you drive around and the Trumpers have new, lifted Pick-up trucks and modern mini-SUVs for the ladies. They have houses now worth $500K+. They all have a towable RV trailer and an ATV/horses. The median income is $55K+. These are not people who care about the price of eggs, yet they voted 75% Trump.
However, they do know that they can be replaced in the oil fields, the plant, the trades, and the farm by newcomers, automation, and competition outside of the US. In their Service jobs (Real Estate, Insurance, Small-Business ownership) they are competing against women in those fields.
When Trump voters say they are worried about the economy, they are worried about losing their place in it. The price of gas and eggs have nothing to do with anything. It is the fact that if they lose their jobs, then the price of eggs is out of reach. Everyone knows in the US that there is no safety net, and in the Rural areas no one can psychologically allow themselves to be perceived as a "Taker".
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Post by semipotentwalrus on Nov 12, 2024 11:53:13 GMT -5
However, some of these same arguments are also persuasive for College educated men, because they are also facing Automation and Women as a threat to their "Place in the world".
Just zooming in on this part because it's the part I find the most interesting. It brings to mind Lyndon Johnson's quote about giving someone someone to look down on.* It's the original, primal question at the heart between left- and right-wing: more or less hierarchies in society? "Fuck you, I've got mine" has always been a negative staple of US culture, but what confuses me is that the flip side of that also has: no kings, no nobles. Part of the US foundational mythos is the whole "of the people, by the people, for the people" thing and "we must, indeed, all hang together or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately" of Benjamin Franklin fame.
To go off on a semi-tangent, part of the reason the US navy went on to completely dismantle the Japanese navy in World War 2 (apart from the absurd industrial disparity) was that the Japanese Navy, like the rest of Japan at the time, was comically hierarchical. As an officer you'd suck up to those above you and abuse those beneath you. You didn't give your superiors any reason whatsoever to punish you and as a result you followed orders to a T and didn't do anything, under any circumstance unless you were ordered to. Japanese ships had dedicated fire-fighting and repair teams whose job it was to keep the ships fighting when under attack. If you weren't them, you weren't supposed to be putting out fires so you didn't get any training in that. The US navy had the opposite approach: while everyone had their role to play, the USN recognized that allowing people to act independently when needed was the way to go and as a result every crewman was given training to be able to drop what they were doing and save the ship at a moment's notice. This also meant that US ships weren't vulnerable to having their fire-fighting specialists wiped out by an unlucky hit and then being shit out of luck because no one else has the training or the initiative to save the ship.
The paradox is that this rejection of hierarchies is extremely visible in things like the rejection of anthropogenic climate change, the aggressive demonization of people like Fauci, and the whole "Deep State" schtick. At the same time, there's a comically huge blind spot to the fact that people like Trump and Musk owe their wealth to abusing the shit out of people lower in the existing hierarchies. The question is how to get people to think about hierarchies not as something ordained by nature but something that we continuously create, and thus consequently can change. To put on my Marxist-sounding cap for a moment, it's the people at the top of the economic hierarchies we should be looking at as the threats as they're the ones who stand to benefit from the automatization and layoffs, and who are the ones in position to threaten people's livelihoods in the first place.
*"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
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Post by easye on Nov 12, 2024 12:04:59 GMT -5
Hierarchies are also a staple of Conservative thought in the US. They understand the hierarchies and desire it, but especially in the social context.
This leads into my argument about it's not about the economy, it is their place in the hierarchy that gets Trump voters voting. Also of interest, is it is more important to maintain your place in the social order than it is to improve your place in it. In fact, the improvement of you place in it is often stigmatized in rural areas with, "Can't get above your raisin'" attitudes.
Edit: Back into the trenches. I am going to a school board meeting tonight due to an anti-Trans bathroom furor locally. The election results combined with the local elections will only embolden the book banners and their ilk in my area. <sigh> Just when I thought locals had pushed them back, I expect them all to come roaring back with a vengeance at the local and state legislative level. I do not know how they constantly have the energy, money, and time over-and-over-and-over again, but they always seem to be replenishing their numbers, coffers, and enthusiasm.
It is tempting to give up. However, I also know I am in a unique situation around here. I WFH for an international mega-corp so am perfectly safe from the types of petty workplace retaliation that others would face here. I have seen it happen with my own eyes. Plus, I know too many LGBTQ+ kids who have no voice that need adults to stand up for them. The local LGBTQ+ community is scared and keeping their heads down.
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Post by Peregrine on Nov 12, 2024 17:25:55 GMT -5
My own thoughts are that Nixon couldn't bug a hotel room without it finishing his presidency. I know we are now living in a very different world, where Trump doing something like that would only make 20 minutes news on 3pm on a Tuesday, but surely some sort of mass vote-rigging system would have a) required a level of complicity, (ironically) deep-state control, level of competence that we can absolutely be convinced they don't have. They would have got the instructions delivered to Four Seasons Landscaping by accident 2) Someone would have talked or come forward with unequivocal evidence of vote rigging, it's impossible to keep these complex conspiracies in the dark, history has shown us. If there was any vote rigging the most obvious scenario would be Russia working directly, without involving Trump at all. And the arguments about keeping complex conspiracies hidden mostly apply to cases where you'd have to involve a random selection of people who are already in the relevant jobs. With a more targeted attack, where you can carefully pick your people and get them into key places, it gets a lot easier. Then you aren't hoping some random low-level government employee stays silent about the shady things they did, you're just trusting that your well-paid professional spies do their jobs correctly. And TBH even if Russia got caught trying to rig the election they still win because it creates more chaos so there's no reason not to try. The only question is if their efforts were successful.
For point of comparison think about the computer virus the US used to destroy the Iranian nuclear program. Because it was a state-run attack they were willing to create a tool that sat silently on infected computers, no matter how appealing a financial target they might be, and do nothing to give away its presence until it reached the target. And once it hit that one very specific and carefully chosen target it finally activated with no defenses to stop it, physically wrecking the uranium refining plant. Theoretically Russia could attempt the same thing with US election systems: create and spread a virus that lies dormant until it gets to the key systems and only then executes its attack. You could do it with a relatively small number of people in the right places, both to get the information to build the attack and to deploy it, and all of them could be well-paid employees of the Russian intelligence agencies. It's certainly not an easy attack to execute but there's a reason why, when you're talking about software security, you have to seriously ask yourself whether you are important enough to invest the vast additional effort required to even attempt to stop state-level threats.
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Post by semipotentwalrus on Nov 12, 2024 17:58:20 GMT -5
Also a colossal argument in favour of pen and paper ballots. Can't hack a non-digital system.
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Post by herzlos on Nov 13, 2024 3:35:33 GMT -5
The hacking rumors are being fueled by claims that rural ballot numbers were reported back using Starlink and Musk apparently having an 'App' that allowed him to call the election 4 hours before it was official.
Now I don't believe Musk is a good enough engineer to do it on his own, but it would be theoretically possible to intercept the transmissions to either read them to adjust the numbers slightly before sending them on to their target. Sufficient encryption should prevent that, but given Starlink's usage I'd be stunned if some world Government has been working to intercept it. I don't think it's Russia though or they wouldn't have told Musk to turn it off for Ukraine unless they were doing some kind of double bluff or wanted to keep their capacity quiet for longer.
Even if no interception attack happened, I think it's terrible form to have a candidates sponsor / buddy be involved in any of the counting/distribution mechanisms because the optics at least are terrible.
Would Trump cheat? Absolutely.
Would Musk cheat? Absolutely.
I can't see why they wouldn't.
What I'm curious about though is what happens if fraud is discovered? I assume if it's before the inauguration then it's suspended until sorted, but if the fraud only appears after inauguration, especially if Trump controls the whole stack, what happens? He won't be impeached or stand down.
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Post by dabbler on Nov 13, 2024 4:25:54 GMT -5
I dunno about all the opinions on manipulation, but I know the answer to what would happen if it was discovered:
Nothing.
The dems would put legal challenges forward, but they'd come to nothing and there would be no change to the result, either because Garland would refuse to act, or the many Republican judges put into place up to and including the SC would find every way to delay or reject it until it was too late and didn't matter. The time to do anything about Trump was in the aftermath of Jan 6. That didn't happen.
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Post by Peregrine on Nov 13, 2024 4:33:50 GMT -5
The hacking rumors are being fueled by claims that rural ballot numbers were reported back using Starlink and Musk apparently having an 'App' that allowed him to call the election 4 hours before it was official. And the disparity in president vs. down ballot races where there are some weird voting patterns with people voting for Trump but then against the pro-Trump candidates for other offices. None of it is clear proof, but it's something that needs to be looked into. Musk himself? No. His technical abilities seem to be around the level of a fresh computer science graduate: enough to know what people are talking about in technical meetings, not enough to avoid saying and doing stupid things like using lines of code written as a metric for his employees. He's a marketing hype man who made some lucky investment choices and is good at self-promotion. But it doesn't take much competence to, say, have him sign off on hiring a Russian engineer for a key role. As for the potential method a man in the middle attack would be theoretically possible. The encryption itself is unbreakable but it would be possible to make a social engineering attack where Starlink has "errors" with the SSL connection and hopefully overworked or tech-illiterate poll workers proceed without it and leave an opening for the man in the middle attack. The trouble with this theory is that it's too easy for local poll workers to compare their sent data with the reported results and immediately spot the error. The other possibility is a hack on the voting machines themselves, but then you're definitely getting way beyond the scope of what Elmu can do and talking about a state-level operation. If there was any kind of hack it would have to be Russia. We're talking about a scope and difficulty that pretty much requires a state intelligence agency, any private business or political group isn't going to have the operational security, blank check funding, and loyal staff to pull it off without leaks (or even pull it off at all). And you probably need the level of state support that makes a hacker look at their successful exploit sitting on a bank system with millions of dollars ready to be stolen, shrug, and wait patiently for it to reach its real target. Russia is the obvious suspect that has the resources to do it, the history of election interference attempts against the US, and the clearest incentive to do it. Russia pressuring Elmu to deny services to Ukraine probably doesn't mean anything. Attacking something as heavily secured as the US election infrastructure very likely means burning zero-day exploits, using those exploits early just warns everyone they exist and starts the clock on them being fixed. If Elmu can be convinced by political or financial pressure to just hit the off switch that's far preferable. We'd be in unprecedented territory and the outcome depends very much depends on exactly how things go with the investigation. If there are accusations and suspicions without clear proof we just see a repeat of 2020 with one side angry about fraud (with or without justification) but otherwise unable to do anything but use it as a rallying cry in subsequent elections. The system won't take the unprecedented step of overturning the election without conclusive proof and even if there are strong suspicions it's enough plausible deniability that the republicans won't sacrifice their political advantages to turn on Trump. If there is clear proof of fraud before Trump takes office it could go a couple ways depending on the timing. If the fraud is revealed before election results are certified by the states they could simply refuse to certify the fraudulent results, leaving time for disputes/recounts/etc is why the formal certification happens some time after election day. It would be awkward to try to untangle exactly what the legitimate votes were but most likely enough states would figure out a way to make Harris the winner to avoid further disaster. If the reveal happened between certification and the electoral college vote this is where the fact that electors are theoretically not bound to vote for the candidate who won their state. With clear proof of fraud there would almost certainly be enough who would defect to Harris and hand her the win. If the proof doesn't appear until after Trump is officially selected as president the only option is impeachment. The desperate hope would be that enough republicans (along with all of the democrats obviously) feel that voting against impeaching a president who was elected by fraud is career suicide and act to protect their own interests. There are a whole lot of pleas of "we had no idea" and Trump is sacrificed to appease the angry mob, and in exchange for supporting impeachment democrats probably look the other way on prosecuting anyone outside of Trump's inner circle. Vance is tainted and impeached as well, and at that point the speaker of the house is next in line. That's a republican but deals are probably made behind the scenes to put in a moderate republican who keeps the seat warm takes no major policy actions without bipartisan support until 2028. If there is conclusive proof and republicans say "sucks to be you, we're not giving up power" then we're completely beyond any precedent or rational analysis. That's the point where we see riots in DC, endless assassination attempts against every republican official, states openly defying federal law, etc. And who knows where it goes from there, it could be anything from apathetic resignation to someone in the military dropping a drone strike on the white house. But I think this is the least likely outcome. Too many people with too much power don't want that kind of chaos happening, if there is proof of fraud it's too easy to just dispose of Trump and find a new figurehead to replace him once things settle down. I dunno about all the opinions on manipulation, but I know the answer to what would happen if it was discovered: Nothing. The dems would put legal challenges forward, but they'd come to nothing and there would be no change to the result, either because Garland would refuse to act, or the many Republican judges put into place up to and including the SC would find every way to delay or reject it until it was too late and didn't matter. The time to do anything about Trump was in the aftermath of Jan 6. That didn't happen. I think you're underestimating the sheer rage that would happen if there was proof of a rigged election and the cheater stayed in power. Trump's coup attempt was only forgiven because it failed and everyone assumed that was the end of him, he'd go retire to his golf course and rage about it on twitter but the crisis was averted without any damage to the system. If Trump had succeeded that's the kind of thing where being voted out in the next election is the least of their concerns, there's a high chance of justices and politicians being dragged out of their houses and murdered in the streets as a warning to others or the military launching a counter-coup to restore order. |
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Post by herzlos on Nov 13, 2024 4:41:21 GMT -5
Edit: Back into the trenches. I am going to a school board meeting tonight due to an anti-Trans bathroom furor locally. The election results combined with the local elections will only embolden the book banners and their ilk in my area. <sigh> Just when I thought locals had pushed them back, I expect them all to come roaring back with a vengeance at the local and state legislative level. I do not know how they constantly have the energy, money, and time over-and-over-and-over again, but they always seem to be replenishing their numbers, coffers, and enthusiasm. It is tempting to give up. However, I also know I am in a unique situation around here. I WFH for an international mega-corp so am perfectly safe from the types of petty workplace retaliation that others would face here. I have seen it happen with my own eyes. Plus, I know too many LGBTQ+ kids who have no voice that need adults to stand up for them. The local LGBTQ+ community is scared and keeping their heads down. You're doing great work! I hope you know that and can keep it up.
I suspect these people have infinite time and energy for this stuff because they've got nothing else better to do and this hate gives them some kind of purpose. They are nothing but fanatical and I suspect that attrition approach works well for them because most people standing up to them don't have the same time and energy to keep up. I still find it baffling that people completely unrelated to a school can have any say in what's going on in a school.
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mdgv2
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 927
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Post by mdgv2 on Nov 13, 2024 4:46:05 GMT -5
Musk is in Trump’s cabinet,
A coalition of utter fuckwits.
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Post by herzlos on Nov 13, 2024 5:02:46 GMT -5
Musk is responsible for reducing Government inefficiency, because that went spectacularly well with Twitter.
I'm sure there's some cringy joke about Department Of Government Efficiency and Musks involvement in DOGE coin. Because why wouldn't he?
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