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Post by dabbler on Jul 21, 2024 13:39:26 GMT -5
From what I’ve read, it’s not a case of “Joe stands down, Kamala is now nominee”. Like. At all? He’s said he’ll see out the Presidency, but the Democrats will sort out a new nominee. I can't wait to see who all the dems that came out and said "he has to go" put forward. Because it's on that branch to win it now, and on them if they get Trump elected after white-anting this hard and loud
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Post by bobtheinquisitor on Jul 21, 2024 13:56:55 GMT -5
White anting?
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mdgv2
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 812
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Post by mdgv2 on Jul 21, 2024 14:06:56 GMT -5
I’m guessing whining auto-incorrected to something weird?
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Post by A Town Called Malus on Jul 21, 2024 14:41:06 GMT -5
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White-anting"It is often used in reference to groups such as political parties or organisations where information from group insiders is 'leaked' or used to undermine the goals of the group. The Macquarie Dictionary says the verb "to white-ant" means "to subvert or undermine from within""
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Post by Haighus on Jul 21, 2024 14:47:41 GMT -5
I think the sad part about all this is it was probably the right choice for Biden personally, regardless of the political consequences. A US presidential campaign is just hard, it takes a lot of stamina. If he is developing significant cognitive decline, which it seems he is, a presidential campaign is likely to hasten it. Forcing him to proceed potentially verges into an abusive situation, depending on how bad his cognition declines over the coming months.
It does seem the wrong choice from a political perspective though. I think that from a UK point of view, the idea people would vote for a candidate openly showing signs of dementia in sufficient numbers to elect them is crazy, but we just don't have the same political system. I think EasyE and Peregrin are right that Biden staying the course was better politically for the Democrats.
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Post by dabbler on Jul 21, 2024 15:09:24 GMT -5
They covered it below, usually used to mean when someone who isn't in charge keeps moaning in the press, leaking things, undercutting the people in charge, but never with any intent to actually fix it. Just trying to make the top fall over.
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Post by Peregrine on Jul 21, 2024 15:54:17 GMT -5
I think EasyE and Peregrin are right that Biden staying the course was better politically for the Democrats. I should note that that was my opinion assuming Biden's health issues don't get worse. The question we'll probably never know the answer to is whether what we saw was merely the tip of the iceberg and Biden's struggles were worse behind the scenes or if he was recovering from his issues at the debate and able to perform better going forward. Biden of 2020 is an easy pick, but if the debate was the high point of his campaign it's an easy replacement. I'm just hoping that the decision was made because the people who had that knowledge made the right call purely for health reasons, not because of panic over media pressure or some kind of internal power struggle. As for his replacement, it's Harris, end of discussion. She preserves as much incumbent advantage as possible, it avoids creating a circular firing squad at the convention, and "my second in command will carry on my legacy" is better PR than "we're bailing on who you voted for and appointing someone new". The only question is which white dude will be her VP and the suggestion I've seen that I'm currently favoring is outgoing NC governor Roy Cooper. He's term limited anyway so no lost seat, as frustrating as his centrism was when I lived there it does work in the south, and he has the experience talking to rural southerners to effectively exploit Vance's "all of you suck I'm so much better than you" book. Wekl that's that, Trump wins. The US isn't electing a black woman, no chance. People said that about electing a black man and then Obama won by huge margins. The racists who won't vote for a black woman are already MAGA cultists, there's nothing more to lose.
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Post by Haighus on Jul 22, 2024 4:23:18 GMT -5
I think EasyE and Peregrin are right that Biden staying the course was better politically for the Democrats. I should note that that was my opinion assuming Biden's health issues don't get worse. The question we'll probably never know the answer to is whether what we saw was merely the tip of the iceberg and Biden's struggles were worse behind the scenes or if he was recovering from his issues at the debate and able to perform better going forward. Biden of 2020 is an easy pick, but if the debate was the high point of his campaign it's an easy replacement. I'm just hoping that the decision was made because the people who had that knowledge made the right call purely for health reasons, not because of panic over media pressure or some kind of internal power struggle. As for his replacement, it's Harris, end of discussion. She preserves as much incumbent advantage as possible, it avoids creating a circular firing squad at the convention, and "my second in command will carry on my legacy" is better PR than "we're bailing on who you voted for and appointing someone new". The only question is which white dude will be her VP and the suggestion I've seen that I'm currently favoring is outgoing NC governor Roy Cooper. He's term limited anyway so no lost seat, as frustrating as his centrism was when I lived there it does work in the south, and he has the experience talking to rural southerners to effectively exploit Vance's "all of you suck I'm so much better than you" book. Wekl that's that, Trump wins. The US isn't electing a black woman, no chance. People said that about electing a black man and then Obama won by huge margins. The racists who won't vote for a black woman are already MAGA cultists, there's nothing more to lose. That's fair. The challenge with cognitive decline is that it is almost never consistent and predictable (which gets even worse for some causes). People can have relatively stable periods interspersed with comparitively rapid decline, they can have good days and bad days, they can have temporary worsenings before returning back to their baseline (although when this happens, usually people go back to a baseline a little worse than what they were like before the dip). One of the particular worries for a presidential campaign is that breaks in routine and being in unfamiliar environments and meeting unfamiliar people can accelerate cognitive decline or precipitate those temporary deteriorations (where the baseline tends to be worse after even if recovering). That means that you might expect Biden to be broadly fine pottering around the White House doing his routine duties (unless he gets a urine infection or something*), but can more or less expect him to go off everytime he flies out to a meeting or a rally or a debate. Which is most of a presidential election campaign. And he might get just a little worse everytime he comes home from such a meeting. So yeah, the Democrat establishment may have been considering that further decline is likely and may increase in pace due to the rigours inherent to being a nominee. They probably have more information and insights than the general public does. *Very common for people in their 80's to get these spontaneously and set off a bad cognitive episode. Common in 70's too to be honest, could easily give Trump a bad weekend.
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 981
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Post by herzlos on Jul 22, 2024 4:45:45 GMT -5
Good for Biden. Whilst I think he's too old for politics and should retire for the good of the country, I think he's also worked hard for it already and deserves to enjoy some kind of retirement whilst he still can.
I don't understand why Americans seem to dislike retiring, it's not as if he can't afford to. No-one should still be working by 70 let alone 80.
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Post by Haighus on Jul 22, 2024 4:47:25 GMT -5
It does seem crazy that you can theoretically have a president who legally couldn't make decisions about their healthcare or will, but is in charge of the executive branch. But the US does seem to have really weird views on capacity and consent though. Plus we have precedent in Ronald Reagan... The 25th amendment allows a president who is incapable of their duties to be removed from power. But that's a far higher threshold than what we've seen so far from Biden, embarrassing mental lapses don't come anywhere near the level where he would be legally unable to make his own decisions anymore. Meant to address this. The problem is how you define incapable. Is it when they can't do any of their duties? All of their duties? Somewhere in the middle- say, when they can't do more than they can (>50% incapable)? What if they are capable some days but not others? Who assesses the capability? Is a trained healthcare professional assessing capacity for each important decision? Or does Congress decide based on whatever they feel like? Edit: it is the latter- Congress decides, once the "Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide" have already decided the president is incapable and the president disagrees. During some of Biden's published bad moments, I doubt he would be considered to have capacity for complex decisions in those moments (capacity is time and decision specific). Capacity isn't straightforward and assessing it can be hard, even if the concept is simple: -Can you understand the information relevant to the decision? -Can you retain the information long enough to make the decision (note they can forget the information immediately afterwards so long as they were able to retain it long enough to complete the other steps)? -Can you weigh up the pros and cons of the decision? -Can you communicate the decision to others (every means should be taken to alleviate non-mental communication barriers like language barriers or mouth deformities etc) If an individual fails any of these, they do not have the mental capacity to make that decision at that time. They might regain it in the future, or be able to make different decisions at the same time. This kind of stuff is vital to my job and I do these assessments frequently (as does every UK doctor). I don't think the US legal system acknowledges how nuanced mental capacity is, or you wouldn't get things like kids being treated as property of their parents with no decision-making capability or travesties like Britney Spears being held in a conservatorship for years against her will with limited redress until recently. We have equivalents, but they only kick in if the individual lacks capacity for the relevant decision, and cease to override the individual as soon as they regain capacity. There is an entire legal framework for assessing if children can make a medical decision without input from their parents or even against their parents' wishes (Gillick competency).
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 981
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Post by herzlos on Jul 22, 2024 7:40:55 GMT -5
I wonder if there's any capability assessment that Biden would fail but Trump could pass.
Though I'd be all for there being some basic capability assessment before swearing in. It's a requirement for a lot of jobs, so the bar for what's arguably the most important job in the world should be much higher.
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Post by easye on Jul 22, 2024 9:07:25 GMT -5
I tend to agree with Bob and Dabbler on this BUT I do see that the Dem base seems pretty energized, and it does draw a stark parallel to the GOP and their aged nominee.
I was surprised by how efficient and well-done the transition from Biden to Harris has been handled so far. It looks remarkably competent at this point.
Final thought, will the Media now bang-on about Trump's mental fitness and age as much as they did Biden's? After all, he is now the oldest person to run for the Nomination now. Somehow I doubt it.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Jul 22, 2024 9:36:50 GMT -5
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Post by easye on Jul 22, 2024 10:07:12 GMT -5
I expect that Trump will not want any further debates now? However, I thought that before and was very wrong.
On a very Cynical note, the Media narrative just got changed dramatically. Now, we have a bigger news story if the first black women President is elected than if the first convicted Felon is elected. I am interested to see how the Media responds going forward with their coverage now that it is Harris vs. Trump.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Jul 22, 2024 10:35:11 GMT -5
The media will probably say she comes across as "cold" or "condescending", but also god forbid she comes across as "too emotional" as a woman, she might even get put into the 'angry black person stereotype'.
Written by people who obviously don't even know about Trump's existence.
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