US Election - 2024

[whembly]

Nov 7, 2024 15:22:56 GMT -5 semipotentwalrus said:

Nov 7, 2024 15:15:42 GMT -5 whembly said:

Do you not see the massive trendline here from 2017-2020 vs 2021-2024??

Can you demonstrate that it's actually due to Biden's policies, as opposed to something like Covid fucking the entire world over in new and exciting ways? Correlation =/= causation.

Also, please tell me you didn't use the CIS self-definition as proof that they're unbiased?

I can see we won't get anywhere.

No amount of evidence is enough for you.

Good day sir.

[Disciple of Fate]

Nov 7, 2024 15:24:39 GMT -5 dabbler said:

And this is why there's no point in engaging him. Someone reads the data he provides, finds a massive issue with it. He brushes it off and will use exactly that same data later. This is fine to do here and doesn't count as bad faith, so there's no point. Just don't engage with him

The goal post have already shifted massively, first it was about the 'drugs open borders' bring in, now the drug part is already conveniently left behind. There is no argument to be had.

[whembly]

Nov 7, 2024 15:26:49 GMT -5 semipotentwalrus said:

Nov 7, 2024 15:21:44 GMT -5 whembly said:

SPLC is a hate organization who's reputations are in tatters.

Statista, then

www.statista.com/statistics/329256/alien-apprehensions-registered-by-the-us-border-patrol/

What's causing the 2018 spike in apprehensions and why wasn't Trump doing any better than Obama? While we're at it, why does your source's data seem "more reasonable"? You literally rejected the data I linked without an explanation as to why so you could replace it with a think tank that has a vested interest in the question. Come on dude.

NO.

Go to the actual agency's website:
www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics

[skyth]

Anything from the ADF is incredibly suspect. Again, a bad source.

[whembly]

Nov 7, 2024 15:39:14 GMT -5 skyth said:

Anything from the ADF is incredibly suspect. Again, a bad source.

But hey... SPLC is the golden source eh?

What a joke.

[skyth]

It's not the only source.

"The Center for Immigration Studies has been criticized for publishing a number of reports deemed to be false or misleading and using poor methodology by scholars on immigration, such as the authors of the National Academies of Sciences 2016 report on immigration; by think tanks such as the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the Cato Institute,[61] Urban Institute[62] and Center for American Progress; fact-checkers such as FactCheck.Org,[26] PolitiFact,[63] Washington Post,[28] Snopes[64] and NBC News;[63] and by immigration-research organizations (such as Migration Policy Institute and the Immigration Policy Center).[65]"

[tannhauser42]

I'm going to agree with Hordini here. The solution to the Whembly problem is to simply put him on ignore and do not engage with him. It's worked wonders for me.

[skyth]

And of course, the attacks on the SLPC for being racist are often a case of 'every accusation is an admisison' again...

[semipotentwalrus]

Nov 7, 2024 15:39:13 GMT -5 whembly said:

Nov 7, 2024 15:26:49 GMT -5 semipotentwalrus said:

Statista, then

www.statista.com/statistics/329256/alien-apprehensions-registered-by-the-us-border-patrol/

What's causing the 2018 spike in apprehensions and why wasn't Trump doing any better than Obama? While we're at it, why does your source's data seem "more reasonable"? You literally rejected the data I linked without an explanation as to why so you could replace it with a think tank that has a vested interest in the question. Come on dude.

NO.

Go to the actual agency's website:
www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics

...the spike is there, shifted one year (which is probably a reporting difference as you say, one being year and one being fiscal year). Encounters spike from 683,000 in FY2018 to 1,150,000 in FY2019, dips temporarily in 2020 (possibly Covid?) and then continues climbing in 2021. The trend quite clearly started before Biden's inauguration in 2021.

I can see we won't get anywhere.

No amount of evidence is enough for you.

Good day sir.

You do have some actual evidence, yes? If your reaction to having the most basic maxim of Methodology 101 pointed out to you is to attack your opponent and break off the conversation there's not much I can say.

EDIT: Post exploded the second quote box, working to restore it.

[A Town Called Malus]

“Alliance Defending Freedom seeks to recover the robust Christendomic theology of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th centuries. This is catholic, universal orthodoxy and it is desperately crucial for cultural renewal. Christians must strive to build glorious cultural cathedrals, rather than shanty tin sheds.” – Blackstone Legal Fellowship website, 2014

“When given the same choice the Supreme Court of the United States had in Lawrence vs. Texas, the Indian Court did the right thing. India chose to protect society at large rather than give in to a vocal minority of homosexual advocates. … America needs to take note that a country of 1.2 billion people has rejected the road towards same-sex marriage, and understood that these kinds of bad decisions in the long run will harm society.” – Benjamin Bull, former executive director of ADF Global, on the recriminalization of consensual sex between adults of the same sex in India, 2013


“[C]ontrol of the educational system is central to those who want to advance the homosexual agenda. By its very nature, homosexual acts are incapable of bearing fruit – indeed, strictly speaking, they are not sexual, as they are incapable of being generative or procreative. Thus there is the need to desensitize and corrupt young minds, both to undermine resistance to the agenda and for recruitment among those that are at an emotionally vulnerable stage of development.” – Then-senior ADF Legal Counsel (Global) Piero Tozzi, speaking at the World Congress of Families gathering in Madrid, Spain, 2012


“In the end, those who profess to be ‘gay’ or ‘lesbian,’ or who have otherwise slipped in and out of homosexual behavior, including ‘cruising’ for anonymous partners, are people who succumb to a dangerous temptation.” – Austin Nimocks, then-ADF senior counsel, writing at TownHall.com, 2007

Yeah, I wouldn't listen to people who want to go back to the 3rd century.

[herzlos]

Nov 7, 2024 15:18:57 GMT -5 whembly said:

Nov 7, 2024 15:13:06 GMT -5 semipotentwalrus said:

Why would bigotry be limited to white people?

But why go to "bigotry" in the first place?

Can we at least acknowledge that there may be other rationales as to why Harris lost the election, other than bigotry?

I have ideas... if you're interested.

Please enlighten me. I'd love to see some good reasons to vote for Trump. If you can back it up with something credible sounding that'd be awesome too.

[herzlos]

I've just watched a horrific interview (recorded pre election) of a long-term Texan Democrat who voted for Trump to stick it to Kamala, assuming Kamala would win.

I'm curious as to how many of that kind of voter there is and how they feel about it now. We had the same with Brexit - no-one thought it'd actually pass so a lot of people voted for it as a protest and completely screwed themselves.

[A Town Called Malus]

And a reminder that even today there are families who have still not been reunited with their children who were taken by the Trump administration's border policy. That is 6 years. Some of those kids have now been separated from their parents for more time than they spent with them.

nymag.com/intelligencer/article/separated-families-border-trump-zero-tolerance-immigration.html

The first hurdle the committee faced was the total disorganization with which “zero tolerance” had been implemented. “There was no intention of reuniting families, and so they didn’t design the system to be able to keep track,” Nan Schivone, Justice in Motion’s legal director, told me. The agencies involved — Customs and Border Protection, which took families into custody; ICE, which oversaw their detainment; the ORR, which was responsible for the separated children — didn’t have a comprehensive system to share data with one another, nor did they always keep records linking parents with their children. If children were released from ORR custody into the care of family or friends, the government did limited follow-up. “We give you a luggage tag for your luggage,” said Gisela Voss, a former board member of Together & Free, which supports families seeking asylum. “We separated parents from their kids and didn’t give them, like, a number.”



It took two months, until August 2018, for the administration to provide the steering committee with the phone numbers of the deported parents; a quarter of the numbers were missing. The committee began its search, making calls and performing social-media investigations. Then, in January 2019, the HHS Office of Inspector General revealed that more families had been separated than the Trump administration had previously disclosed. Nine months later, the Justice Department finally produced those names. There were 1,500 of them, and the vast majority of the parents had been deported.

[herzlos]

I'm also seeing a few people getting eaten by the Leopards already, though unverified.

One is a factory worker in rural PA, heavily Trump leaning. Annual Christmas bonus, and presumably pay rises, have been cancelled because the company plans to spend all available money bulking up inventory to avoid any tariff issues. Factory boss had to explain to them how tariffs actually work and none of them are happy.

3 car manufacturers have apparently also done the same - any unnecessary spending is suspended until the tariff thing is sorted. Agencies have pulled all manufacturing job reqs. They seem to be really preparing for a beating here.

Lots of companies are going to need to gamble a bit here - do they go all in on inventory now and use up any spare cash, or do they wait and see if their margins and customers can handle the tariffs later.

I actually wonder if Trump can tank the economy before he even starts.

[tannhauser42]

Nov 7, 2024 16:11:24 GMT -5 herzlos said:

I actually wonder if Trump can tank the economy before he even starts.

[/div][/quote]


Oh, but the Dow was up so much this morning, that must mean everything is great, right?

Anyway, I'll be picking up a few extra bottles of Lagavulin tomorrow.