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Post by steelmage99 on Nov 8, 2024 0:37:19 GMT -5
What’s the TLDR? I’d like to know before I click. To me it seems like Jonathan fell for the Right wing narrative... |
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Post by steelmage99 on Nov 8, 2024 0:52:41 GMT -5
But seemingly more who do. It's a binary system even if the result is 51/49. You're a nation of bigots now  Trump got record number of non-white voters. Strange to presume their votes are based on bigot principles.... Do you think only whites can be bigots? |
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Post by steelmage99 on Nov 8, 2024 0:57:54 GMT -5
<s>"The Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) is an American anti-immigration think tank. It favors far lower immigration numbers and produces analyses to further those views." "Reports published by CIS have been disputed by scholars on immigration, fact-checkers and news outlets, and immigration-research organizations" Hmmm...</s> Nice try. According to....The Center for Immigration Studies. |
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Post by Haighus on Nov 8, 2024 2:32:42 GMT -5
It's absolutely racism. You pretended originally that the issue was crime, now you're whining about the standards for LEGAL immigration not being strict enough. And you and I both know why you object to that legal immigration. Please pound sand Assassin Advocate™. Nope. I'm describing a despicable border policy that is encouraging illegal immigration, that forces the current administration to issue Incorrect. In order to claim asylum, you must go to either your embassy in your nation, or to the next contiguous nation and claim asylum in that embassy. All the migrants coming thru the border is mostly non-Mexicans. What the Biden administration is doing is abusing the law by illegally "paroling" the claimants. So, the USA is a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention via the 1967 protocol. It is acknowledged as the supreme law of the land and will remain so unless the US withdraws from that treaty (which would basically be saying they don't care about suffering of others in other nations). Under that convention, the route of entry into a nation is irrelevant so long as the individuals claim asylum at first opportunity. Their method of entry becomes legal the moment they do so. If their claim is rejected, they can be managed as per the laws of the land (usually deportion). Claiming asylum is a legal route of temporary entry, that only becomes permanent if the claim is accepted. At no point is contacting an embassy required. Only finding an official person and stating intent to claim asylum is required. Not going to comment on the parole part because I don't know enough about it, but it is plausible that the Biden administration broke federal law, although the fact it wasn't struck down in the courts by now suggests otherwise. The US cannot simply close the border to asylum seekers- if they do so they are in breach of their signed obligations under international law, and must accept the consequences of such if they do so. |
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Post by semipotentwalrus on Nov 8, 2024 5:55:38 GMT -5
No. Again, I explicitly said that it's an argument that isn't absurd, read what I'm writing. I'm saying that you haven't actually shown that it's true, you've simply assumed that because it could be true it must be, and that it explains the entire increase. You were onto the point yourself just a post ago when you pointed out that the spike in the late Trump admin could be explained by other factors than policy. You're right, it could and kinda would have to given that Trump's policies hadn't been ended by Biden at that point. Why, then, would the same not potentially be true for the stats during the Biden administration? Proving that something happened because of something else requires eliminating alternative explanations, not just positing that it's plausible that there's a causal link between two variables. Even then such a link might well exist and simultaneously only explain a portion of the increase. Without digging deeper as a hypothetical, would it not be possible that deteriorating conditions in South America could explain the increase in 2019 and that the dip in 2020 is simply a result of Covid fucking over everything everywhere before the same worsening conditions kicked back in 2021, with Covid-related factors making it even worse? Again I'm not saying that this is necessarily instead of policy changes, I'm trying to get through to you that you haven't gone the entire line out in your argument to show how it's Biden's revocation of Trump's policies and nothing else that caused the spike in immigration. This is also why I've brought up the contrast to Obama; during Obama's last four years the apprehension numbers were roughly the same as the start of Trump's administration. If Trump's policies were what was holding back immigration, why were the numbers holding steady at Obama levels until spiking in 2019? The given explanation from your point of view, I assume (and correct me if I'm misrepresenting here) would be that the numbers during Trump would have increased had he not implemented those policies, correct? Assuming this is a fair representation, there would then have to be some factor that was driving immigration up that was being counteracted by Trump's policies. The follow-up question then would have to be "what factors were counteracting the downward pressure of Trump's policies to keep immigration at the same level as during Obama's tenure?" followed immediately by "and how do we know that it wasn't those factors increasing further, rather than a policy change, that is to blame for the surge in numbers?".
Let me steelman your position to keep this succinct: a) You acknowledge that there is a surge of emigration during the Biden administration. b) You are positing that the surge could be explained from other facts besides whatever policies the Biden administration have chosen. c) You are asking me to provide an actual linkage that I can point to substantiate my position, which is I'm as "the Biden polices is encouraging more illegal immigration". If a, b, c are wrong, please correct me. C should be "you need to demonstrate that Biden removing Trump's policies is what caused the surge in illegal immigrants". The claim was that it was Biden's policy change that caused it, not that it simply contributed an indeterminate part. Otherwise the way C is worded would require us to accept that a hypothetical situation where Biden's policy change lead to an increase of one person constituted proof that Biden caused the immigration surge which is obviously absurd. Other than that, it's not that you need to link Biden's policies so much as removing other possibilities. Did Covid have an impact? Was there worsening domestic situations in South America? A bunch of factors like that. Assuming you manage to establish a causal link between Biden revoking Trump's policies and the immigrant surge you then have to establish a link between that surge and the drug smuggling, having to go through the whole process of eliminating other potential factors again. |
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Post by herzlos on Nov 8, 2024 5:56:57 GMT -5
*I'm convinced that's what Trump means when he talks about people being shipped to the US from mental institutions. He doesn't know that claiming an asylum and housing people in a mental asylum (a completely outdated term) are different things.
I totally agree. I also think that is why Right wingers often claim that; "America isn't a democracy. It is a republic". I am convinced that Right wingers don't like that the word "Democracy" because it reminds them of the Democrat Party, and consequently prefer the word "Republic" because it reminds them of the Republican Party. You may be onto something there. I can see right wingers thinking that democracy means "in line with the democratic party" which they've been told is communist, marxist, fascist, and think those things are bad without knowing what any of it means. Except that fascist doesn't mean anything anymore because people who know what the word means call Trump fascist. The party names really annoy me because the US is a democratic republic, so neither party really means anything. |
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Post by crispy78 on Nov 8, 2024 6:06:52 GMT -5
Yes. Fascism is bad because it's what America fought in WW2, and America are the Good Guys, right? Fascism can't happen in America because fascism is bad, and America is good.
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Post by pacific on Nov 8, 2024 6:14:47 GMT -5
Interesting article on how the voting figures changed between elections www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trumpOn a separate note now, some of my main thoughts (and this is partly from speaking to someone I work with, an American from nr New York) is how so much of Trump winning (and he did win looking at the increased vote, it wasn't just a Democrat own-goal) and his campaign was based on hatred and division. Of fear of other. And what this will now engender within public discourse, within the interactions of our lives - and it won't just be in the US either, despite so many comments of "what do you care of the US? It's not your country". I don't think many Americans realise what an impact their country has, by both hard and soft power. We in the UK had our own little Pound-Shop Trump following 2016, many places around the world were similar, carried through on a similar wave of fear and misguided nostalgia. As an example, going back to 2016 and the Brexit vote in the UK, a friend of mine (she was 3rd generation of Indian descent) was driving into work on the morning of the result. A man walking past banged on her car bonnet and shouted with glee "getting ready to go back to your own country now?" Not only does that show a lack of intelligence in the first instance (which also has a lot to answer for here) but how when our leaders work on a platform of division and lack of empathy for others different to ourselves, it empowers people who might otherwise have kept thoughts to themselves out into the open. It causes hurt. Twitter/X is awash with revolting commentary and messaging following the election result - it is making me think of the Morlocks emerging from caves, howling and beating their chests, it is all the darker side of our nature. |
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Post by Peregrine on Nov 8, 2024 6:15:09 GMT -5
Yes. Fascism is bad because it's what America fought in WW2, and America are the Good Guys, right? Fascism can't happen in America because fascism is bad, and America is good. Remarkably similar to how in Russia "Nazi" means "someone who opposes Russia", giving the absurdity of Ukraine's Jewish president being called a Nazi. No clue how those attitudes could possibly be related though... |
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Fugazi
Gay Marine
Minor Threat
Posts: 15
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Post by Fugazi on Nov 8, 2024 10:51:16 GMT -5
I only offer some small piece of advice. People who refuse to engage in good faith are telling you who they are. Believe them.
You will not change them, but you can change how you react to them. We cannot control others. We are, however, in control of our actions and reactions.
I’ve struggled with this, but it has helped. Life is short. Spend your energy wisely.
My two cents.
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Post by herzlos on Nov 8, 2024 11:01:02 GMT -5
Absolutely, I always struggle with the urge to debate with them but it's always proved futile. The best thing for everyone is to just ignore it and move on.
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Post by herzlos on Nov 8, 2024 11:07:46 GMT -5
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Post by crispy78 on Nov 9, 2024 3:10:21 GMT -5
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Post by Peregrine on Nov 9, 2024 4:29:30 GMT -5
As a counter to some of the bleak assessments of the future I found this interesting piece: So it may very well have been the case that this election was virtually impossible to win for the democrats no matter what they did. Incumbents were going to get voted out because of the economy, general unhappiness, etc, and it's likely only because of how weak Trump was that the US saw one of the lowest drops in vote share for the incumbent party. Obviously this doesn't make the next 2-4 years suck any less but it does IMO give some hope for the future. The conditions that produced this global trend probably won't be the same in 2028, and potentially even in the 2026 midterms, and the rabid hate and ignorance of the MAGA cult may not be such an impossible obstacle to overcome. |
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Post by herzlos on Nov 9, 2024 15:22:45 GMT -5
I think it's usually the case that in hard times, the incumbent gets voted out regardless of the why. If people aren't doing well, they vote for the other guy for change. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't.
I'm seeing a lot of chatter on social media about ballots not being counted or just missing. Nothing in a huge scale, a few thousand didn't make it from a machine to a counter after a USB stick was misplaced, boxes of unopened ballots falling off trucks, and a lot of people who voted being able to check on line and having them not registered or counted somehow. Shouldn't that all be wrapped up by now? That, coupled with some suspicious statements from Trump (his little secret plan, how he flipped from claiming it was already rigged to being sure it wasn't rigged) and the huge margins he took swing states by out of nowhere, some people are thinking something funny is going on but can't prove anything yet. Is that just the denial stage of grief happening or do we think there's anything behind it? Personally, I'm struggling to marry up the footage of quiet Trump rallies and seemingly apathy with the huge swing towards Trump, but I'm not sure if that's a bubble thing or not. I don't see much pro-Trump stuff despite looking, but apparently if you start a fresh social media account you get a lot of right wing stuff pretty quickly. I'm also struggling to believe that that much of the voting population is that angry/stupid/gullible, but I could be wrong. |
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