Let's Talk about China

[Disciple of Fate]

Internal unrest is why Xi and the CCP invest so heavily into technological repression. Starting a war is a lot riskier for the CCP, as it could cut off further trade overseas and push any sort of economic slowdown into an utter economic disaster.

I don't know if you can say they pale in significance. The PLA fought the US and its allies to a standstill in Korea, arguably at the height of US power comparatively. The difficulty in this comparison is that China always faced strong foreign opposition in the region (the Soviets/Americans), whereas many European powers in the early 20th century did not, unless fighting amongst themselves on the European continent.

As for military spending, a direct financial comparison is a little pointless, because the US military industrial complex is largely private contractors, while the Chinese complex is state owned. Financial and budgetary considerations are not (as much) focussed on making money, because they deliver to the state 'at cost' (or even under cost to hide the true amount) so to say. The real value might be double what the current budget states.

[pacific]

Ah yes - I had forgotten about Korea, that's a good point. I remember reading about what McArthur thought would be necessary to win the war for the US, and didn't it involve a nuclear strike on China?! As he knew the men and materials would keep pouring over the border.

Yes that is a very good point on costs. It might be that the Chinese (to use a very poor pun) are getting more bang for their buck with their equipment. I did have a look at Jane's at the cost of the latest Chinese 5th generation fighter (the J-20) and it's like going back to the days of the Cold War, there is almost no information at all. Even the articles on power plants and weaponry are speculation. One site had tried to calculate a cost based on similar Russian 5th generation costs, and it came out at about 33% less than an F-22, but again they acknowledged it was complete speculation on their part. Reading this, I feel like the chances of me seeing one of these aircraft fly at Fairford international air tattoo are quite slim

[Haighus]

I thought the US had the military capability to stop Chinese forces at the border, but MacArthur didn't bother planning for a serious Chinese counterattack precisely because his plan was just to nuke the Chinese seaboard if they did (in part due to being a massive racist). I am pretty sure he also hugely underestimated the capability of the Chinese military, also due to being a massive racist.

Basically the US forces were thoroughly underprepared and nearly got pushed out of Korea as a result.

[Disciple of Fate]

Yes the US was not as prepared, but they still had massive advantages the Chinese did not: air power, artillery and logistics. Even after the initial surprise, the Chinese managed to push the US back across half of Korea, while no longer having air support (air support over North Korea was mainly along the NK-China border, the CCP did not fully commit all resources) and far more difficult supply lines. China suffered heavy casualties, but managed to reverse a complete North Korean collapse and fight it back to the old situation with some Soviet help, which they maintained for two years of the war.

Take into account that this was a marginally industrialized China, which had been devestated by over 15 years of civil war and foreign invasion, only unifying a year before their Korea intervention. Meanwhile the US came out of WW2 with their home unscathed and a vast industrial base able to produce military equipment.

The 'throw a nuclear bomb on it' mentality persisted until Vietnam, because that was the only real technological edge the US had that might make a difference, given that heavily carpet bombing both North Korea and Vietnam did not help the US win wars.

[Disciple of Fate]

Aug 11, 2023 6:04:38 GMT -5 pacific said:

Yes that is a very good point on costs. It might be that the Chinese (to use a very poor pun) are getting more bang for their buck with their equipment. I did have a look at Jane's at the cost of the latest Chinese 5th generation fighter (the J-20) and it's like going back to the days of the Cold War, there is almost no information at all. Even the articles on power plants and weaponry are speculation. One site had tried to calculate a cost based on similar Russian 5th generation costs, and it came out at about 33% less than an F-22, but again they acknowledged it was complete speculation on their part. Reading this, I feel like the chances of me seeing one of these aircraft fly at Fairford international air tattoo are quite slim

Another thing to consider, being the innovator is always the most expensive, because others can to an extent copy and steal your research. Chinese spying, digital and in person, appears to be much more pervasive than Russian espionage at this point, who knows what they stole and can save a few RMBs on? Espionage is impossible to factor in with development cost, because the US won't be eager to share what exactly has been stolen or might not even be aware of all theft.

[Haighus]

Aug 11, 2023 7:18:58 GMT -5 Disciple of Fate said:

Yes the US was not as prepared, but they still had massive advantages the Chinese did not: air power, artillery and logistics. Even after the initial surprise, the Chinese managed to push the US back across half of Korea, while no longer having air support (air support over North Korea was mainly along the NK-China border, the CCP did not fully commit all resources) and far more difficult supply lines. China suffered heavy casualties, but managed to reverse a complete North Korean collapse and fight it back to the old situation with some Soviet help, which they maintained for two years of the war.

Take into account that this was a marginally industrialized China, which had been devestated by over 15 years of civil war and foreign invasion, only unifying a year before their Korea intervention. Meanwhile the US came out of WW2 with their home unscathed and a vast industrial base able to produce military equipment.

The 'throw a nuclear bomb on it' mentality persisted until Vietnam, because that was the only real technological edge the US had that might make a difference, given that heavily carpet bombing both North Korea and Vietnam did not help the US win wars.

I think that is kind of my point- the US should have won that war overwhelmingly, but instead had a fairly humiliating draw as the outcome.

I still think MacArthur's complacency is a huge part of why that happened, although I am sure that mindset was found in many of his subordinates too. I find this particularly mindboggling as it occurred after the Pacific theatre of operations in WWII, where exactly the same mindsets in the same commanders (esp. MacArthur) resulted in the same kind of rapid collapses against Japanese forces in the early phases of that theatre. Obviously not the only factor, but you would think they'd have learnt their lesson not to underestimate Asian armies based purely on racism. But racism be racism I guess.

Incidentally, I consider MacArthur to be of the same ilk as Admiral Beatty- politicians who happened to be in the military rather than effective commanders.

[easye]

I think there could also be a case to made that "modern" Colonialism IS "Economic Influence".

If you accept that premise, then the scramble for Africa has all ready begun.

[Disciple of Fate]

Yes, the term is neocolonialism and the Chinese initiatives have sometimes been termed as such.

[Haighus]

The US certainly practices it.

[pacific]

Well I think much of the developed world is probably involved.

Read quite an interesting study about how both Argentina and South Korea differed in their development. S Korea did not access massive IMF loans in the 1970s and 80s which came with a caveat of opening their economies to foreign investment and removing trade barriers. Instead, they withstood significant fines and protected their own fledgling electronics and automotive industries while they were allowed to develop. They have now grown as an economy and are one of the strongest and most resilient in the world, and are leaders in both of those sectors amongst others. Contrast with Argentina and that country's level of growth.

[semipotentwalrus]

They were also both (pseudo-)dictatorships. There's more involved than just loans or lack thereof.

[easye]

China's economic woes keep getting worse. Here's why

www.npr.org/2023/08/16/1193711035/china-economy-tao-wang-interview

The government's property tightening measures in 2020-2021 were certainly a key trigger in the ongoing property downturn. But the latter was also due to major shifts in long-term real estate demand and supply, and was aggravated by the pandemic and related policies. Regulatory tightening on internet platforms, fintech companies and the after-school tutoring sector came out in a concentrated period of time a couple of years ago with little warning, leading to a sharp correction in those sectors. While the government has now signaled a normalization of regulations and vowed to support the private sector and internet companies, business confidence may take time and concrete reassuring measures to recover. Subdued business confidence is likely a factor behind weak private investment post-COVID, though falling profits and orders are also to blame.

The problem with data coming out of China is..... what to believe? This economist from the IMF is predicting a 4-5% GDP growth, but based on what? The information that China's government tells us about itself, and it is unclear exactly how accurate or impartial that data is. I like to imagine an Economist has a way to control for that, but I am always skeptical of economic or military data coming out of China.

Probably a Bias on my part.

[mdgv2]

I’d imagine export/imports are a better gauge. For instance, if Ford exported 100 cars to China in 2022, and 110 in 2023, there’s raw data and inference to be had from such known info.

[Disciple of Fate]

Exports/imports have seen a significant 10%+ decrease over last year and youth unemployment by the CCP's own data is 20%+. It doesn't look great, but China is such a peculiar beast when it comes to the amount of financial control the CCP can exert internally, that it is hard to say what will happen exactly down the line.

www.cnbc.com/2023/08/08/china-reports-double-digit-plunge-in-july-exports-and-imports-missing-expectations.html

We know China tends to massage GDP numbers, but with no way to reliably check them independently, we can't really do much but speculate with official numbers. Official numbers that are low enough that the CCP isn't happy with them.

[easye]

The article I posted also mentioned softness in the internal property market.

I had also heard some anecdotal stories of rural folks no longer trying to go into the city for work, and instead staying or returning to the farm as the work just wasn't there anymore. Again, it was just anecdata so who knows how much value to place in that, and if that has changed post-Zero COVID.