Let's Talk about China

[Disciple of Fate]

Covid has led to more people leaving cities than migrating to them, but as that is just a few years it's not a reliable trend yet, because it was the heavy handed CCP lockdowns trying to prevent movement to cities.

Overall it makes sense, even in China people are being priced out of big cities, while building housing is/was booming, affording it is/was entirely a different matter, some estimates are that house prices in big Chinese cities might be 20x higher than the average income. To put that in perspective, according to an estimate from Harvard, San Francisco and LA come in at about 10x average income.

Then you add in the aging population in combination with migration. Less people are being born overall (mainly a consequence of the 1 child policy) and people over the last few decades leaving for the cities have not had babies in the countryside that could later migrate to cities. China is simply running out of people that (want to) migrate.

[easye]

This is some of the internal tension that I think is a real roadblock to China's future as a Great Power.

China makes it harder for its Muslim citizens to go to Mecca, or anywhere else

www.npr.org/2023/08/17/1189860622/china-muslims-mecca-hajj-travel-surveillance

Within China, authorities have severely restricted practicing religions, especially Christianity and Islam. In the region of Xinjiang, at least hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs, a historically Muslim ethnic minority, have been detained or arrested since 2017. Elsewhere, across northwestern China, provincial authorities have demolished mosques or forcibly removed their Arabic-style domes, closed Islamic schools and surveilled religious leaders.

[Disciple of Fate]

Is it though? The US was a great power before the civil rights movement ended segregation. The Soviet Union achieved great power status before destalinization. Unfortunately your human rights record can be quite flexible, even as a great power.

The Muslim population of China is smaller than the (formerly) repressed populations of either of the above.

[Haighus]

The UK was a global hegemon whilst practicing open colonialism. I am pretty sure good human rights are not a pre-requisite to "great power" or "super power" status (I don't think those are the same thing).

If anything, it seems the opposite is true- massive exploitation is required to become a super power.

[Disciple of Fate]

Aug 17, 2023 11:09:02 GMT -5 Haighus said:

The UK was a global hegemon whilst practicing open colonialism. I am pretty sure good human rights are not a pre-requisite to "great power" or "super power" status (I don't think those are the same thing).

If anything, it seems the opposite is true- massive exploitation is required to become a super power.

It depends on who you ask. From a realist point of view, that would be true, as it would be an "exploit or be exploited" world.

Liberal institutionalists would say exploitation is not a requirement, as the economic size and normative power of say the EU makes it a superpower in its own right, just within a more cooperative framework instead of a dog eat dog world that exist in the realist mind. It depends on how you perceive power and classify superpower.

[easye]

You are pointing to good historical precedents, and there are also historical precedents where "better" human rights records leads to you losing your Great Power status.

However, there is not a real safety valve for a build up for these types of tensions within China. In the US, there is a path for reform; even if it is slow and frustrating. Think of the Arab Spring (and other "revolutions") as an example of how tensions can build up in a totalitarian state with no safety valve that can lead to challenges and de-stabilization.

Not to say this WILL happen in China, but there is a lot of pressure below the surface. The more the economy struggles the more these tensions will build and be seen in internal Chinese politics. If enough of these build-up, it can be problematic.

I have a feeling that some of the Taiwan tensions are to try and unify and paper over some of these internal tensions using a rally around the flag strategy.

That said, you folks have demonstrated a much better understanding of China than I have.

[Disciple of Fate]

I mean, the sort of safety valve is running people over with tanks, which worked for both the Soviets and the Chinese. The Muslim minority is too small and on the margins.

Nationalism is indeed a good distraction from internal issues and the CCP is acutely aware of the risk of social unrest due to economic issues, but the treatment of (these) minorities isn't going to create a public groundswell against the CCP, it's not present enough in Chinese society.

[adurot]

x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1692518358145520006?s=46&t=snUnwQNK03r1w3t2y30x9Q

[easye]

If they are, Taiwan should be scared.

[pacific]

Is it please possible just to write a line or headline from twitter or social media links? As I can't access on my work network.



This is quite interesting and worth a read, about changes that need to happen to avoid a US/China conflict.

www.theguardian.com/business/2023/aug/28/how-can-the-us-and-china-prevent-a-war

As  for China being a 'super power', I think a lot comes down to definition. Reading about it online it seems even academics themselves don't agree on an exact definition or who qualifies. 
Britannica lists it as "a state that possesses military or economic might, or both, and general influence vastly superior to that of other states." If that is the definition that you are using, I think China surely qualifies. 

I suppose what still adds an element of doubt to us in the West is that a) how news from China doesn't dominate Western news reels, so you don't get a sense of what is going on (when I lived in Korea for a couple of years, it was a very different story!) b) China hasn't yet had it's 'Vietnam' (or 'Afghanistan') and a display of immense military strength, in the same way as the US or Russia. This feeds into the Chinese politics of 'hide your strength', which existed up until Xi Jinping's tenure, although with the increasingly belligerent comments on Taiwan, and belligerence in the South China sea, that policy looks to be changing. 

[easye]

China no-showing at the G20 was probably a big diplomatic mistake, as it furthers US diplomatic goals in isolating China and building a network of alliances to "contain" China. It was especially a bad idea to snub India.

At the G20, Biden joins forces with India and the Middle East, sidelining China

www.npr.org/2023/09/09/1198644841/biden-g20-india-saudi-arabia-corridor

NEW DELHI - President Biden announced plans for a new rail and shipping corridor that will connect India, the Middle East and Europe — a long-term push to improve the way goods, energy and information moves across borders, that notably does not involve China.

Biden made the announcement with other world leaders at the G20 — a summit that China's President Xi Jinping chose to skip this year. Afterward, Biden clutched hands with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to mark the moment.

[Disciple of Fate]

India and China have been at odds for decades. Plus China has decent allies in Brazil, South Africa and Russia. The G20 is fun for show, but has a lot of clashing interests. Most of the lines inside the G20 have been drawn, with most plans having been prepared well in advance.

[easye]

Yes, I know that India and China have no love lost. They have a pretty well known border dispute going on that involves a whole lot of access to water.

However, by snubbing a near neighbor like that? Well, you are making the US's job of containment that much easier. At least make us work at it!

[Disciple of Fate]

Xi has been snubbing neighbours for as long as he has been in power. The man only understands hard power, the value of any sort of soft power is almost completely lost on him.

About 10 years ago, they sort of had a saying for Xi that boiled down to him cutting down the tree of soft power that his predecessors had carefully nurtured over the decades.

[easye]

The comparisons to pre-WWI Germany continue to grow with modern China.