nfe
OT Initiate
Posts: 144
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Post by nfe on Oct 10, 2023 10:47:35 GMT -5
Israelis were sold out by their European neighbors, and nearly exterminated in Europe. They rightfully rejected moving back into their old homes - who would? - and found a new one, where their culture had originated from, where many Jewish communities, against the odds, survived. Just to highlight this for clarity - as you rightly say there were always Jewish communities in the southern Levant. They, or their ancestors, were the majority for most of the last 3000 years, and unless the most recent census has been published, the majority of Israelis are still Mizrahim - Middle Eastern Jews. Synonymising Israeli and European erases their history (just as describing Palestinians as Arab colonists erases theirs).
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Post by easye on Oct 16, 2023 10:01:47 GMT -5
Well, one things for sure; the Gaza war has taken Ukraine off the media map. Whether this helps or hurts the cause long-term is an open question.
I'm not even going to get into how it has wiped out any notice of Armenia/Azerbaijan.
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Ukraine
Oct 31, 2023 6:09:25 GMT -5
Post by redchimera on Oct 31, 2023 6:09:25 GMT -5
Just a reminder that this thing is still going on.
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nfe
OT Initiate
Posts: 144
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Post by nfe on Oct 31, 2023 7:27:11 GMT -5
Well, one things for sure; the Gaza war has taken Ukraine off the media map. Whether this helps or hurts the cause long-term is an open question. I'm not even going to get into how it has wiped out any notice of Armenia/Azerbaijan. No kidding. Dunno the last time I saw the Ethiopian civil war on the news either (ever?) and that's killed 100,000+ people in the last year.
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Post by easye on Oct 31, 2023 9:54:04 GMT -5
The list of things NOT covered is rather astounding.
Really anything going on in Africa is just glossed over the moment anything else happens anywhere. An old vestige of Eurocentrism, racism, and colonialism I would wager.
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Ukraine
Nov 6, 2023 11:11:31 GMT -5
Post by easye on Nov 6, 2023 11:11:31 GMT -5
So, the Russian offensive design to draw UKraine units away from the possible break-out point seems to have gone no where. However, I have not heard much about the Ukraine offensive.
The new US House Speaker Johnson is trying his best to make sure the US stops sending aid to Ukraine but not letting it come up for a vote.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Nov 6, 2023 12:02:18 GMT -5
So, the Russian offensive design to draw UKraine units away from the possible break-out point seems to have gone no where. However, I have not heard much about the Ukraine offensive. The new US House Speaker Johnson is trying his best to make sure the US stops sending aid to Ukraine but not letting it come up for a vote. The Ukrainian offensive continues to slowly grind south. A major breakthrough is currently unlikely, it is an attritional business. There have been some significant attacks by Ukrainian forces across the Dniepr near Kherson, but nothing that could be considered a proper beachhead. The Ukrainian presence on the east bank has been substantial and present for some time now, but is still essentially a raiding party in force to pin Russian forces in place. Ukraine continues to successfully strike Russian assets in Crimea, which is impressive. I suspect their interdiction campaign will start to break the current parity of forces at some point, as they appear to be much better at meaningfully targeting rear-area logistics than the Russian forces.
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Ukraine
Nov 6, 2023 12:03:42 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Disciple of Fate on Nov 6, 2023 12:03:42 GMT -5
Both seem to be running out of steam, but both are attacking each other's most well defended positions. Perhaps the Ukrainian attempts around the Dnepr will hold some suprises (not having used most of their western supplied amphibious equipment so far), but they're running out of favorable weather.
Though Ukraine claims (with videos as supposed evidence) to be attacking Wagner personnel in Russia.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Nov 6, 2023 12:06:15 GMT -5
Both seem to be running out of steam, but both are attacking each other's most well defended positions. Perhaps the Ukrainian attempts around the Dnepr will hold some suprises, but they're running out of favorable weather. Ukraine have stated they plan to continue attacking through the autumn, because they are mostly forced to do infantry assaults by Russian minefields anyway. The infamous mud is much more of a concern for armoured vehicles. This would make a major breakthrough harder until the ground freezes again though.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Nov 6, 2023 12:07:50 GMT -5
A breach in the Russian defensive lines without a breakthrough possibility might not mean much though, depends on how quickly the Russians can prepare new defenses in the rear.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Nov 6, 2023 12:15:38 GMT -5
A breach in the Russian defensive lines without a breakthrough possibility might not mean much though, depends on how quickly the Russians can prepare new defenses in the rear. Agreed. Continued Ukrainian offensives in this period will be primarily to prevent Russia from getting a break and reconstituting its forces. Last time Ukraine had to release the pressure, Russia was able to create the dense defensive lines that are causing so much pain to Ukrainian forces in the current offensive. Ukrainian command seem to be pretty realistic and measured about their current operational reality though, more so than Russian press releases. Ukraine is also showing a greater ability to adapt and learn from the conflict. I think that Ukraine is currently in the stronger position, but obviously that situation can change for loads of reasons.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Nov 6, 2023 12:18:29 GMT -5
The real big future problem might be supply, between US congress and western manufacturing capability, Ukraine might start to run too low on equipment.
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Ukraine
Nov 20, 2023 11:36:46 GMT -5
Post by easye on Nov 20, 2023 11:36:46 GMT -5
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Nov 21, 2023 7:07:57 GMT -5
Yeah, that is potentially a big concern. I am sure it is having a huge impact on their doctrinal choices, as it did for the UK in WWII. On the other hand, Russia is not being careful with their manpower and is also facing recruitment shortages. I'd not be surprised if Russia was trading 3 casualties for every Ukrainian given the way they are fighting, but it will still take time for that to take effect.
From what we have seen, I think critical equipment shortages will have an impact before critical manpower shortages, but it is hard to predict.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Nov 21, 2023 7:40:06 GMT -5
To clarify why I think equipment shortages may be more acute.
Russia is sufficiently low on armoured vehicles that they are refurbishing mothballed museum pieces. For example, a "modernised" T62 was destroyed counterattacking the Ukrainian beachhead on the east bank of the Dniepr in the last couple of days. Notably this casualty was close enough to Ukrainian positions that it was probably being used in assault rather than as a crappy howitzer. Other advanced equipment is in low supply, like cruise missiles (see the drop in strike intensity in the last year) or AA equipment (Ukraine is actually able to achieve local air control in places due to this, such as their use of drones around the Dniepr bridgehead).
Ukraine is deliberately targeting hard-to-replace equipment like ECM units or anti-air radar. Their interdiction campaign looks to be carefully targeted and Russian logistics do have several key, vulnerable chokepoints and nodes that can be targeted, such as the Kerch bridge.
On the other hand, Ukraine itself is heavily reliant on Western aid for its own advanced equipment, and has to adapt to a hodgepodge of donated and loaned equipment. They don't necessarily get the equipment they need or want, and there must be an absolutely frazzled logistics corps trying to supply and maintain all that stuff. NATO standards will help with some of it, but still.
On top of that, Ukraine's biggest source of military aid may stop supplying much or all of its current commitment due to internal politics and in favour of helping Israel bomb Palestinian kids.
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