Ukraine

[pacific]

Reading about the 'drone strike' on the Kremlin. What are people's thoughts on it?

Saw an article commenting that it may have been a false-flag exercise. There was no actual danger to Putin, as he apparently very rarely attends the Kremlin and never stays there overnight. Having 'for the kremlin' written on the drone reminds me of pranks that used to be carried out by kids in school, putting their names on stuff to try and get them in trouble.

It has also been pointed out by analysts that it's unlikely that the model of drone could have penetrated Moscow airspace, which is extremely heavily defended.

Most importantly, my take from this is what happens now; having something like this happen frames what will now be a larger recruitment drive, and for Russia to bring in bigger guns - apparently most Russian military bloggers and the Russian press is calling for exactly that.

[redchimera]

for quite some time now I've been at the stage of 'everything Russia says or does is a lie'.

On the eve of Russia's infamous parade, and reported concerns over the Immortal Regiment featuring too many photos of dead soldiers from 2022 (rather than 1945) this is a false flag to stoke up a bit of patriotic fervor and damp down any anti-war feeling.

Maybe it's also an attempt to sour Selensky's trip to The Hague, give some EU nations a bit of doubt over the 'defensive purposes only' agreement for donations of weapons. I don't think it's going to work.

[Disciple of Fate]

Seems like a pointless attack for Ukraine to be the perpetrator, the day of the parade would have a much larger symbolic impact.

People are also pointing out the strange thing of there already being people on that exact roof in the middle of the night, during a supposedly unexpected drone attack. Make of that what you will.

May 4, 2023 3:49:07 GMT -5 pacific said:

It has also been pointed out by analysts that it's unlikely that the model of drone could have penetrated Moscow airspace, which is extremely heavily defended.

Problem with this line of thinking is that most analysts also expected the war in Ukraine to go very different. At this point, what does heavily defended according to Russian army capabilities even mean?

[pacific]

Yes, although with the benefit of hindsight you can see why most of the analysis went the other way with respect to the overall outcomes, and also the shortcomings in Russia's approach over whether they could achieve a victory without a full mobilisation.

This is a more simple analysis - penetration of Russian airspace. From what I have read the Ukranian fast jets are having to carry out most of their operations at high speed and very low altitude, at great risk, to avoid Russian anti-aircraft and interception capability. So it stands to reason that a drone with vastly less speed, defensive (and offensive) capability could not accomplish what a Flanker or Fulcrum could not, on targets much closer to the border.

[Disciple of Fate]

Depends though, most aircraft are a lot bigger than drones. We don't know how well Russians can track drones that are smaller than the prevalent aircraft that were around when most of their Soviet era equipment was made. We have seen drones hit important targets in Crimea/Sevastopol, which we assume should be almost as heavily defended as Moscow at this point, being a big naval and logistics hub.

[easye]

This whole "drone attack" thing seems very weird.

[Least censored on the planet!]

I can't tell if false flag or not, but it sure doesn't seem to have any meaningful effect to me. I don't think it's going to leave a big impact in the mind of Russians (those that were already in favor of the war will keep being so, those that didn't care will still not care, didn't even kill a single Russian so not so impactful) or the rest of the world (noone is even convinced it was actually the Ukrainian, and it is such a small-scale attack!). If anything it makes Russian defense look inefficient for letting the drone go that far…

[pacific]

Quite a contradiction/dichotomy occurring at the moment, as you have what a Ukranian general has labelled "meat assaults" by Russians in Bakhmut - waves of poorly trained and equipped conscripts being sent to horrendous deaths - while 'Victory Day' takes place in Russian to the North.

Putin's words, "“Today, civilisation is again at a decisive, turning point, a real war has been unleashed against us again,”

How many people realise this is bullshit? How many Russian sons and daughters will have to be sent to their deaths before an upswell of opposition starts to take place?

[Disciple of Fate]

It almost sounds like a bad joke, but there really isn't much of a contradiction. The great Soviet victory being celebrated was won using many of the same tactics used in Ukraine now. At no point in the war did the Soviets ever really care about the lives of their soldiers, the people in charge just became more competent in carelessly spending them.

As for any sort of mass opposition, that is so hard to predict, as long as it doesn't affect those doing the repressing, it might go on for a long time.

[maddocgrotsnik]

U.K. is sending Storm Shadow long range missiles.

I’m not the only one with the mental image of a Super Heavy Tank Launcher, am I?

[skyth]

Wouldn't Snake Eye's be better?

[maddocgrotsnik]

May 11, 2023 9:11:57 GMT -5 skyth said:

Wouldn't Snake Eye's be better?

Not after his movie, no.

[easye]

I completely misread that sentence, and assumed Storm Shadow was one of you cute names for an official.

I googled it and found out that was the actual name of the missile! Made much more sense.

[easye]

The Wagner Chief has been bad-mouthing the regime in Moscow for a few weeks now.

How long until he conveniently falls out of a window?

[Disciple of Fate]

Not for a while, he's too convenient at the moment and not a risk to Putin for now.