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Ukraine
Apr 6, 2023 14:10:18 GMT -5
Post by easye on Apr 6, 2023 14:10:18 GMT -5
Yeah, the main limit of game theory is it assumes a rational actor who always acts rationally. Once that Rubicon is crossed it kind of breaks down.
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Ukraine
Apr 6, 2023 16:14:18 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Disciple of Fate on Apr 6, 2023 16:14:18 GMT -5
The problem with that line of thinking is that it ignores all the people behind Putin going along with him that aren't affected by the war in Ukraine, but sure as hell would be affected by a nuclear war.
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semipotentwalrus
Ye Olde King of OT
A somewhat powerful marine mammal.
Posts: 975
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Ukraine
Apr 8, 2023 5:55:51 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by semipotentwalrus on Apr 8, 2023 5:55:51 GMT -5
It, like every other theory that relies on rationality, also completely ignores that what is rational depends entirely on what moral suppositions one makes about the world. It's hopelessly deterministic.
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Ukraine
Apr 10, 2023 16:22:16 GMT -5
Post by Least censored on the planet! on Apr 10, 2023 16:22:16 GMT -5
I am sure humanity would survive in some form. But, the hundreds of millions that died in the initial strikes would be joined by billions more in the following years as a result of that nuclear winter/extreme weather events and collapse of economies, agriculture, industry, globalisation. I don't think it's possible to overstate how catastrophic it would be, and I don't think unreasonable to think that the lucky ones would be those killed in the initial blast. Ahah yeah I saw that movie too, good times for all!
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Post by easye on Apr 10, 2023 16:54:18 GMT -5
Threads!
Day after Tomorrow!
On the Beach!
Failsafe!
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Ukraine
Apr 11, 2023 7:50:36 GMT -5
Post by Least censored on the planet! on Apr 11, 2023 7:50:36 GMT -5
Only seen the first one. If I want to be depressed I can watch the others as well? Oh, if you want to be depressed I recommend Combat Shock. It's a Troma movie but this one is surprisingly serious, and it's like Rambo First Blood without the whole unstoppable super soldier thingy, and with Grave of the Fireflies level of depression.
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Ukraine
Apr 11, 2023 11:21:39 GMT -5
Post by pacific on Apr 11, 2023 11:21:39 GMT -5
that sounds horrendous! Can it be worse than the Russian film Come and See? Which is possibly the most awful war film I have ever seen, really quite sick but certainly gives a very strong anti-war message.
I have been trying to get hold of Threads for some time. It doesn't seem available on streaming and I haven't been able to find a reasonably priced disk copy. It seems to be one of those films, if you are in the UK and over a certain age you will have seen it..
Was actually listening to an interview (on the Dan Snow podcast, History Hits) about the UK's preparedness for nuclear strikes. There were all sorts of advice that the government gave out, but all apparently done with the knowledge that it was a token gesture, and would not have done any good. As the UK is so small geographically, for the most part there wouldn't be many places which would have survived the immediate blast damage. Perhaps some remote parts of northern Wales or Scotland. The UK gov had a plan of these special boats (which were passenger ferries which had been specially constructed and with noted 'upgrades' such as air-sealed compartments) but that were used by a normal ferry company the rest of the time. The idea was that the powers that be would escape to those ships and take out to sea. Of course, it completely ignored the fact that they would have had very little warning of a strike, so would almost certainly have been useless.
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Post by Least censored on the planet! on Apr 11, 2023 11:46:11 GMT -5
Can it be worse than the Russian film Come and See? Which is possibly the most awful war film I have ever seen, really quite sick but certainly gives a very strong anti-war message. I don't know, I haven't seen that one. My reference for war movies is Yesterday's enemy, which is incredible for being a British movie depicting British horrible war crimes, and for how even just the title shows the absurdity of war. I have been trying to get hold of Threads for some time. It doesn't seem available on streaming and I haven't been able to find a reasonably priced disk copy. It seems to be one of those films, if you are in the UK and over a certain age you will have seen it.. I've watched it on Twitch! We have some kind of secret movie clubs where we show various rare movies and it's real fun, but it's a French-speaking community. The idea was that the powers that be would escape to those ships and take out to sea. Of course, it completely ignored the fact that they would have had very little warning of a strike, so would almost certainly have been useless. I guess the situation would gradually worsen before the actual strike, so the VIPs would have the time to switch from normal schedule to “I'm never more than 30 minutes away from shelter” or something. The measures for the population being just for morale purpose and absolutely inefficient seems quite likely though!
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Apr 11, 2023 12:18:15 GMT -5
For most it would either be the quick or slow death. Even if you can protect the majority of the population from nuclear inferno, then what? Most of us would starve in the weeks after as available food in the area quickly runs out. Imagine the sheer amount of space you would need to build up a decent stockpile for dozens of millions.
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Ukraine
Apr 12, 2023 8:48:12 GMT -5
Post by pacific on Apr 12, 2023 8:48:12 GMT -5
Yes right. I was listening to the historian Dan Snow on this. He lives near a large navy base in the UK, and said that if he somehow had a warning of what was coming, he had already made the decision that he would take his wife and child and stand on the shore and have their last moment together.
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Ukraine
Apr 12, 2023 11:07:44 GMT -5
Post by easye on Apr 12, 2023 11:07:44 GMT -5
I don't get into the post-apoc movies much because there is no doubt in my mind I would not be a survivor.... or at least a survivor for very long.
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crispy78
OT Initiate
Posts: 160
Member is Online
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Ukraine
Apr 12, 2023 11:14:13 GMT -5
Post by crispy78 on Apr 12, 2023 11:14:13 GMT -5
Yes right. I was listening to the historian Dan Snow on this. He lives near a large navy base in the UK, and said that if he somehow had a warning of what was coming, he had already made the decision that he would take his wife and child and stand on the shore and have their last moment together. Mmm. It looks like he's in the New Forest somewhere. I'm probably a similar distance, give or take, from Portsmouth as he is. Bugger.
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Ukraine
Apr 14, 2023 4:42:52 GMT -5
Post by pacific on Apr 14, 2023 4:42:52 GMT -5
Reading about the Pentagon leaks, which looks like it could well have implications for the Ukraine war. Specifically around shortages of ammunition, troop and casualty levels etc. I think the only saving grace (for Ukraine) is that I read something like 1.2 million people (surely that cannot be right?) had access to that level of secret documentation. With that sort of distribution, it is surely almost beyond question that Russia would not already be aware of the content of the reports, and would already be acting on that level of knowledge.
Not sure if it requires a thread in it's own right, but depressing to see elements of the GoP rushing to defend Jack Teixeira's actions. Is there nothing, even something like this, that can't be split across partisan lines?
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Apr 14, 2023 10:13:06 GMT -5
The explanation I have seen behind the 1.2 million number, is that there is a lot of classified information at a lot of different clearance levels. So having some sort of clearance might only give you access to 1% (or less) of all the information that requires clearance and is relevant to your work. Split that number over all the government agencies and armed forces, about 1/3 people working for the federal government might have some sort of clearance. Which sounds plausible but probably too high as well, given that clearance is also extended to people in politics (think about the Trump family clearance) and outside of government in places such as the defense industry. Iirc, you technically don't lose it either (like when you retire), unless stripped of it?
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Post by easye on Apr 17, 2023 10:18:26 GMT -5
Just read that Slovakia is sending 13 Mig-29's to Ukraine.
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