Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Ukraine
May 23, 2023 3:10:59 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Haighus on May 23, 2023 3:10:59 GMT -5
Seems about right. I think the morale effect of withdrawing for Ukraine is going to be much less than if Russia fails to take the city though.
It reminds me a lot of the battle around Severodonetsk last year- big meatgrinder, effectively halted the Russian advance and caused it to culminate shortly afterwards even though the Russians forces eventually took the town. I think Bakhmut is going to exhaust forces in that area.
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Ukraine
May 23, 2023 5:12:02 GMT -5
Post by Least censored on the planet! on May 23, 2023 5:12:02 GMT -5
However, if they have, it is a bit of a reverse to what we were hearing weeks ago - that the Ukrainians were actively re-taking ground, and had rendered months of Russian advances meaningless in a matter of days. From what I read, the ground taken back by Ukrainians was surrounding the city, and Wagner/Russia holds all or next to all of the city proper now but not the surrounding area.
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Post by easye on May 23, 2023 9:44:18 GMT -5
Thanks Mcbogus, I at least; read every word of it.
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Ukraine
May 23, 2023 10:17:08 GMT -5
Post by pacific on May 23, 2023 10:17:08 GMT -5
This is going back to the good ole' days of the Stalin regime, where a good number of the scientists working on the Russian missile and space programs had spent time in the Gulag. I believe the summary was that it's not particularly good for morale or programme efficiency.. Although the methods should certainly be questioned, overall the results were that the Soviets had an early lead over the US in their space program (and copying the atom bomb was done at a fast rate under Stalin). For all of the crimes of Stalinism, scientific advancement was quite rapid when the regime put its mind to it. Most people remember the moon landing as 'the win' for the US, but the Soviets outdid the US in quite a number of milestones before the moon landing. I've read a fair bit on the topic (reading a book on it at the moment actually!) and the impression I got was that the Soviets 'won' the space race (or at least, all of the milestones with the exception of the moon landing) despite their oppressive regime, not because of it. The head of the space programme, Korolev, had actually spent years in Siberia (a colleague had named him as a potential spy, while they themselves were being tortured) and was only rescued after a former professor learned of his internment and insisted to Khrushchev that he was essential for the space programme. That essentially saved his life. I read about this weird sort of psychological disconnect that everyone in that situation had to go through, of not feeling bitter to the point of despondency that they had suffered such an utterly unjust imprisonment, but were then able to come back and work to further the aims of the same regime that almost killed them - had killed their colleagues. But it makes you wonder how many other scientists could have helped (and the Soviets did have an early lead in rocketry, as their ICBMs had to be bigger and more powerful to carry their larger, less advanced, nuclear weapons) but went to an early grave instead, due to the regime. Also although people think the Soviet's would have been more slap-dash with the lives of their cosmonauts, but in fact that wasn't the case. They had many test flights with dogs and even dummies before they risked Gagarin. Perhaps one of the advantages of the Soviet regime was their level of secrecy; they had a perfect measure of the US programmes (they only had to look at Time magazine) while the US was forced to guess on progress of their counterparts, and of course results were only announced when they were successful. It's quite possible Shepherd might have been the first human being to reach space if they had realised how close the USSR was, and they would have chosen not to do that final launch containing Ham the monkey. Anyway - sorry, back to Ukraine! Stories of a 'free Russia' unit (I don't know from where the units come from) actually taking some land over the Russian border now.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on May 23, 2023 10:27:02 GMT -5
Of course, I don't disagree that the Soviets could have done better without Stalinism, but even the results in this niche were similar to a free society. Unlike today's Russia, where they are neither free nor producing results it seems.
As for the units crossing into Russia. They are Russian volunteers, who are even further to the right of the Russian regime.
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Ukraine
May 24, 2023 5:28:13 GMT -5
Post by Least censored on the planet! on May 24, 2023 5:28:13 GMT -5
As for the units crossing into Russia. They are Russian volunteers, who are even further to the right of the Russian regime. From what I read that's true for the Russian Volunteer Corps but I don't know if it's also true for the Free Russian Legion. At the very least NSBM musician Alexey Levkin is part of the counter-invasion, from what I could gather in the RVC.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on May 24, 2023 7:44:03 GMT -5
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Ukraine
May 25, 2023 5:21:42 GMT -5
Post by pacific on May 25, 2023 5:21:42 GMT -5
Thanks for posting that link, that was an interesting read. There is an incredible amount of differing narratives on social media at the moment, very hard to get a bead on what was involved.
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Ukraine
Jun 5, 2023 12:06:11 GMT -5
Post by easye on Jun 5, 2023 12:06:11 GMT -5
So, has the Ukrainian counter-offensive begun?
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Post by pacific on Jun 6, 2023 3:04:39 GMT -5
Very hard to get any coherent narrative on what is happening at the moment. There are a number of Ukrainian (and Russian) bloggers claiming some offensive actions are underway. There was a Russian claim (unverified) that a Ukrainian offensive had been defeated, with many hundreds of Ukrainian troops killed. But, my thoughts are, if they really had stopped an attack and had photos of a burning Abrams or Leopard, we would have seen photos of it. Going on what some of the military commentators have said (I follow an ex-US general who writes some interesting threads on what is happening) it might be that Ukraine is probing or feinting in different areas before trying to make a whole-sale attack.
I see the Russians, in another shitty move, have destroyed the Nova Kakhovka damn which is putting a lot of people at risk. They might have done this to make Ukraine divert troops (which were about to take part in offensive) to help with the civilian rescue operations.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Jun 6, 2023 3:06:56 GMT -5
They also could have blown the dam to make an offensive across the Dneipr harder. There was evidence a few weeks ago that the Ukrainian forces were operating on the Russian side of the Dniepr, this may have been done to weaken or prevent a beachhead.
Edit: will blowing the damn put the Zaporizhia nuclear plant in danger of running out of water?
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Post by Least censored on the planet! on Jun 6, 2023 4:02:05 GMT -5
The dam has been damaged, either voluntarily or by neglect, by the Russians and Ukrainian civilians have been flooded as a result. Terrorist scum. Link :
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Ukraine
Jun 6, 2023 5:19:54 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by adurot on Jun 6, 2023 5:19:54 GMT -5
So far both sides are claiming the other blew the dam and I haven’t seen a reliable source confirming one way or the other. The nuclear plant said they’re fine for the moment. Crimea sounds like it’s going to be screwed for water for the next decade though?
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Jun 6, 2023 5:22:07 GMT -5
So far both sides are claiming the other blew the dam and I haven’t seen a reliable source confirming one way or the other. The nuclear plant said they’re fine for the moment. Crimea sounds like it’s going to be screwed for water for the next decade though? There is very little incentive for Ukraine to blow the damn that they didn't even control, and lots of reasons for Russia to do so and they had much easier access. Of course, admitting that is bad PR most of the time.
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Ukraine
Jun 6, 2023 5:42:45 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Disciple of Fate on Jun 6, 2023 5:42:45 GMT -5
Crimea will be fine overall, Ukraine had the canal blocked for 8 years from 2014 to 2022.
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