It's the Economy, Stupid!

[easye]

Better than a lot of the world, however Voters in swing states feel disconnected from the economic success.

Their own economic prospects they feel bullish about, but they are bearish on the Economy as a whole according to survey data. However, I am not sure how much you can really trust survey data anymore for a number of reasons.

There is a lot of reporting on this disconnect in US political news right now.

[Disciple of Fate]

Apr 5, 2024 10:56:55 GMT -5 Haighus said:

Apr 5, 2024 10:44:24 GMT -5 Disciple of Fate said:

Got to wonder how many undecided voters are left that could still care about facts like this.

Overall we had a very small recession in the Netherlands, but its surprising that the current economy is relatively resilient given the recent inflation.

Well, sometimes the devil is in the detail. The UK recession, for example, is much worse when considering GDP per person (as mentioned above) due to population increases. I don't know if something similar has happened in the Netherlands.

The USA is definitely doing pretty well on the whole though, much better than a lot of Europe.

Here we recovered due to strong labor negotiations seeing the largest average wage increases in decades, coupled with reduced inflation and reduced unemployment. Recent wage increases smoothed out the rampant inflation for a good part of employees, if not fully compensating for it.

[Haighus]

Apr 5, 2024 11:25:22 GMT -5 easye said:

Better than a lot of the world, however Voters in swing states feel disconnected from the economic success.

Their own economic prospects they feel bullish about, but they are bearish on the Economy as a whole according to survey data. However, I am not sure how much you can really trust survey data anymore for a number of reasons.

There is a lot of reporting on this disconnect in US political news right now.

The term I have seen for this is the "vibecession".

[skyth]

www.yahoo.com/news/researchers-discovered-sent-80-000-165423098.html

A group of economists recently performed an experiment on around 100 of the largest companies in the country, applying for jobs using made-up resumes with equivalent qualifications but different personal characteristics. They changed applicants’ names to suggest that they were white or Black, and male or female — Latisha or Amy, Lamar or Adam.

On Monday, they released the names of the companies. On average, they found, employers contacted the presumed white applicants 9.5% more often than the presumed Black applicants.

But racism doesn't exist...

[Peregrine]

Honestly I'm surprised it was only 9.5%, we must be making progress.

As for the disconnect between feelings and stats I think it highlights the difference between the magic line and the actual economy. The line is continuing to go up but the actual economy is in very poor shape with more and more people losing their safety margins and starting to fall behind. A comment I saw that put it very well: if I eat two pieces of bread and you eat nothing we have each eaten an average of one piece of bread and everything is fine!

[Disciple of Fate]

I like the joke version about the two economists in the woods.

Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit.

The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit.

They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit.

Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing."

"That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"

[easye]

onsumers haven’t felt this bad about the economy since November

www.cnn.com/2024/05/10/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-plunges/index.html

Consumer sentiment plunged to the lowest level in six months as price increases reaccelerated, according to the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers, released Friday.

Additionally, consumers are bracing for even higher price increases in the year ahead compared to readings from prior months, the survey found.

The gauge, which is closely tracked by the Biden administration, plunged 13% from April’s 77.2% reading, to 67.4%. Economists polled by FactSet were expecting consumer expectations to fall to just 76.9%. However, the latest reading is still better than last May, when inflation was running at 4%, versus the latest reading of 3.5%.

I am unsure how much the tail is wagging the dog in these findings.

[Haighus]

Since November seems... like a bit of a nothing statement. That was 6 months ago, stuff doesn't usually change that much in 6 months.

Anyway, my suspicion for the "vibecession" is that it is mainly being driven by the cost of housing.

[easye]

May 10, 2024 12:55:23 GMT -5 Haighus said:

Since November seems... like a bit of a nothing statement. That was 6 months ago, stuff doesn't usually change that much in 6 months.

Anyway, my suspicion for the "vibecession" is that it is mainly being driven by the cost of housing.

.... and political messaging.....

[carlo87]

Apr 8, 2024 13:41:23 GMT -5 skyth said:

www.yahoo.com/news/researchers-discovered-sent-80-000-165423098.html

A group of economists recently performed an experiment on around 100 of the largest companies in the country, applying for jobs using made-up resumes with equivalent qualifications but different personal characteristics. They changed applicants’ names to suggest that they were white or Black, and male or female — Latisha or Amy, Lamar or Adam.

On Monday, they released the names of the companies. On average, they found, employers contacted the presumed white applicants 9.5% more often than the presumed Black applicants.

But racism doesn't exist...

I would like to see this study redone, but with different names. Employers do prefer easier to pronounce names, and many of those Black names don't exactly roll off the tongue. Swap out some Jims and Johns for Regenold and Geoffrey. 

[skyth]

May 10, 2024 16:16:10 GMT -5 carlo87 said:

Apr 8, 2024 13:41:23 GMT -5 skyth said:

www.yahoo.com/news/researchers-discovered-sent-80-000-165423098.html

But racism doesn't exist...

I would like to see this study redone, but with different names. Employers do prefer easier to pronounce names, and many of those Black names don't exactly roll off the tongue. Swap out some Jims and Johns for Regenold and Geoffrey. 

And they are 'easier to pronounce' because they are 'white' names...

[carlo87]

May 10, 2024 16:38:33 GMT -5 skyth said:

May 10, 2024 16:16:10 GMT -5 carlo87 said:

I would like to see this study redone, but with different names. Employers do prefer easier to pronounce names, and many of those Black names don't exactly roll off the tongue. Swap out some Jims and Johns for Regenold and Geoffrey. 

And they are 'easier to pronounce' because they are 'white' names...

Or, just more common names? Or with fewer syllables? I've yet to meet a Black man names Geoffrey, outside the butler from Fresh Prince of Bel Aire. 

[bobtheinquisitor]

A lot of “black names” are Muslim names that roll off the tongue perfectly well in places where people are used to them. Just like a lot of Mexican names roll off the tongue for people with any experience with Spanish. Not wanting to deal with “hard to pronounce” names pretty much results in not wanting to deal with the “other”.

[bobtheinquisitor]

Just as a side note, but the majority of the black people I’ve met have had the same Anglicized Biblical names as most white Americans and API Americans I’ve met. These names are the most “common” names because they come from the Bible.



And if you’ve studied Hebrew, Aramaic or Latin, they’re all pronounced fuckin weird.

This reminds me of Seth Meyer’s running gag where he was surprised to find out Ben Franklin’s wife had the normal-sounding name “Deborah”, and not some old timey name. When corrected, he doubled down that it sounded as ridiculous as calling “Candace” a biblical name. Good times.

[skyth]

May 10, 2024 17:58:21 GMT -5 bobtheinquisitor said:

A lot of “black names” are Muslim names that roll off the tongue perfectly well in places where people are used to them. Just like a lot of Mexican names roll off the tongue for people with any experience with Spanish. Not wanting to deal with “hard to pronounce” names pretty much results in not wanting to deal with the “other”.

Reminds me of a story I heard about an Evangelical preacher that moved to Texas from up north.  In his first sermon to the congregation, he made it all about the dangers of all the people in the area worshiping a devil by the name of Hayzeus...