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Post by crispy78 on Sept 11, 2024 5:13:22 GMT -5
BBC reporting that Harris successfully kept Trump off message, getting him to massage his ego rather than address anything useful. It certainly seems like she led him around by the nose, and he gleefully pounced on everything she baited him with. Hopefully people realise it's not just the relatively benign Kamala Harris who could do that with him.
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Post by Peregrine on Sept 11, 2024 6:04:01 GMT -5
I'm not convinced there are actually that many undecided/swing voters, because you'd have to be deep in the MAGA camp to think he's capable. My suspicion is that a lot of the undecided/centrists are just quiet conservatives. But then I don't think I've seen one that doesn't only seem to have MAGA views. "Undecided" probably means "low-information voter". These people don't follow politics outside of presidential elections, vote for the same party every year without thinking much about it, etc. It's not that they think he's capable, it's that they haven't thought about him at all and write off all the discussion so far as "both sides". The debate is one of the few times they'll actually pay attention to politics. And while it's true that completely undecided voters are relatively rare (though it doesn't take much to swing a close state) a lot of those quiet conservatives are also weak conservatives. If you ask them and get an honest answer they'll admit to conservative opinions but they aren't strongly committed to acting on them. And while they may or may not actually go all the way to vote for a democrat they're far more likely to stay home on election day because Trump is a disappointing loser.
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 981
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Post by herzlos on Sept 11, 2024 6:16:38 GMT -5
Normally I'd agree with that, but Trump has been in the news cycle more or less constantly for nearly 10 years now. I'd imagine apart from the absolutely no information voters (don't watch TV, don't read newspapers, don't talk politics to anyone) must have heard enough to form some kind of opinion. Of course that opinion could be "I don't care, they all suck".
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Post by crispy78 on Sept 11, 2024 6:20:13 GMT -5
If nothing else, the recent QAnon... I don't know what to call it - movement? Craze? Nonsense? has proved that there is a sizeable tier of 'bullshit information voters' below the 'no information voters'. Who the hell knows what they will vote based on?
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Post by Haighus on Sept 11, 2024 6:44:36 GMT -5
Don't underestimate the number of "single issue"* voters who will hold their nose and vote for someone they otherwise detest if it means furthering their particular political bubear.
I think a lot of the evangelical voters fall into this camp- they vote for Trump so long as his policies continue to suppport Christian nationalism even though Trump himself is a terrible Christian. If Trump's first term had increased separation of church and state in the US rather than the reverse, then a lot of them would probably be cooler on Trump now. I'm not referring to the MAGA cultists proclaiming Trump as the new prophet or whatever.
I am sure there are some "single issue" voters who will be swung by a debate if they think Trump won't deliver the goods anymore. As mentioned, they are more likely to stay home than vote blue, but staying home is half a vote to the opposition.
*Using the term loosely, single issues can be quite large goals.
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Post by tannhauser42 on Sept 11, 2024 7:13:23 GMT -5
Would an undecided or low information voter even watch the debate at all, or just rely on their news channel of choice to tell them who won with some carefully selected highlights?
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Post by pacific on Sept 11, 2024 7:44:38 GMT -5
I think the amount of conservative viewpoints on social media decrying how biased the network moderation was (echoing Trump's own comments)I think really reveals who most think 'won' the debate.
From an outsider perspective who nonetheless dreads the outcome of November, just seeing someone articulately string sentences together and make cogent points was an absolutely breath of fresh f*cking air I can tell you.
Thought Harris made some interesting points about Russia/Poland, specifically targeting the Polish-American population in Pennyslvania and what a Putin victory would mean for them - I thought showed a lot of savvy, while by comparison Trump was talking about people from Haiti eating dogs (which has already been memed to hell)
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Post by easye on Sept 11, 2024 9:31:22 GMT -5
Generally, "Independents" tend to lean one direction or the other. There are actually almost 0 people that do not lean towards one-party or another. Even low-information voters fall into these preferences. For example, a low-info "independent" probably still have a bias that "Republicans are better for the economy". To win a modern election, you need to do two things:
1. Get your own base out and mobilized 2. Keep the other guys at home
You aren't really trying to appeal to anyone but your base, and then depressing the folks likely to vote for the other person. The Rovian strategy for winning elections has not been disproven yet.
Edit: Yeah.... what Peregrine said earlier!
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Post by bobtheinquisitor on Sept 11, 2024 13:21:40 GMT -5
The memes that came from the debate paint Trump as a laughingstock, so hopefully that will demotivate his less fanatical supporters.
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Post by Peregrine on Sept 11, 2024 15:41:30 GMT -5
Normally I'd agree with that, but Trump has been in the news cycle more or less constantly for nearly 10 years now. I'd imagine apart from the absolutely no information voters (don't watch TV, don't read newspapers, don't talk politics to anyone) must have heard enough to form some kind of opinion. Of course that opinion could be "I don't care, they all suck". Trump has been in the news, sure, but seeing someone in the news doesn't necessarily mean forming a useful opinion. They see Trump in the news with people hating him, they see Trump in the news with people praising him, they shrug and change the channel to go watch commentary on last night's football game. This is part of why I hate the media and how they handle Trump like a normal politician. The front page headline is "Trump criticized for nuking Wyoming because its resident was mean to Trump on twitter, but could this provide new opportunities for the weapons industry? Also, is Biden too old to properly nuke his enemies?" instead of "WTF you morons how are you still taking this clown seriously". If you don't dig beyond the surface it all looks like business as usual where it's all just noise and there's no point in paying attention until the debate (and even then only barely).
Would an undecided or low information voter even watch the debate at all, or just rely on their news channel of choice to tell them who won with some carefully selected highlights? Often yes. It's one of those Traditional American Political Things™.
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herzlos
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 981
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Post by herzlos on Sept 11, 2024 16:06:36 GMT -5
It still concerns me deeply that Trump, arguably the least qualified candidate for any kind of leadership position, is an actual serious contender for President of the USA.
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Post by pacific on Sept 12, 2024 3:49:41 GMT -5
Well that and that he is just one of the worst human beings by any possibly measure
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mdgv2
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 812
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Post by mdgv2 on Sept 12, 2024 3:56:41 GMT -5
For what it’s worth, UK media seems pretty unanimous that Trump fucked it right up. Now I’m not saying our media is subjective like, but certainly less invested than the USA’s. Favourite front page is this morning’s Daily Star. Who aren’t a spoof news paper, just an irreverent one.
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mdgv2
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 812
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Post by mdgv2 on Sept 12, 2024 3:59:57 GMT -5
As for Trump’s appeal? From my journeys orbiting the Conspiraphere, the USA does seem to have a strong base of anti-government “nobody should be able to tell me what to do, but I should be able to inflict my preferences on everyone else” attitudes. They seem to run from relatively benign to completely fucking crazy. But they are there.
And so a maverick fuckwit will appeal. He’s one of us, he’ll let us do what we want.
Hence the bullshit culture war and claims of being silenced, despite protesting your alleged silencing on the national and international stage etc.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Sept 12, 2024 5:18:47 GMT -5
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