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Post by Hordini on Jul 16, 2024 11:55:11 GMT -5
That is my prediction, so don't get too excited. My take was very, very wrong in 2016. My predictions and a nickel will get you a cup of coffee at Wall Drug. However, no Dems or Dem leaning voter is going to sit this one out. They will crawl over broken glass to vote for a Dem President, Biden or not, and all the talk you hear about replacing him is: 1. The Media constantly trying to creating the illusion that there will be a brokered convention/horse-race election. Blow-outs do not generate $$$. 2. The usual Dem circular firing squad. Dems in highly progressive or tight races always have to distance themselves from the President 3. The Biden replacement story has been pushed hardest by right leaning media, and then others choose to pick it up in order to look "balanced". 4. Almost all US Media is owned by Billionaires and Mega-Corps The right and Republicans are the ones desperate to motivate their base to get to the polls. Dems are all ready locked and loaded to be there, just like 2020. I expect Biden to win pretty much the same number of votes. Trump actually got more votes in 2020 than 2016. His only chance is to continue to find "new" voters, and he has done that successfully in the past. However, I am not sure there is much more space in the voting pool for him to dig up enough new voters in those key states to off-set the Biden votes. You make some good points here and in your previous post, especially in regards to Republicans being boisterous about their win being inevitable now. I will say for sure, the election isn't over until it's over, but I can see some parallels between Republicans being overconfident in their victory and Hillary Clinton's overconfidence both in her race against Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Both times she (and many of her voters) acted like she had it in the bag, and from my perspective, both times that overconfidence was a significant factor in her losing. I could see the same thing happening with the Republicans here. In fact, I would argue that Republican overconfidence in victory was also a factor in their loss in 2020 and a factor in the number of Republicans willing to buy into the stolen election myth. This next election is still going to be a fight though, given the situation with President Biden. |
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Post by easye on Jul 16, 2024 11:59:40 GMT -5
Delete: Further discussion on the election should probably go to the election thread......
Anyway, FBI unlocked the shooters phone and traced his whereabouts the last few days. Surprisingly, he went to the gun range, bought some ammo, and a ladder too.
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Post by Hordini on Jul 16, 2024 12:13:56 GMT -5
What situation with Biden? The situation where his administration has had the best run since Reagan? Oh? You mean he is old and people are afraid that we might have a black women as President? I'm primarily referring to his debate performance and the fallout from that. It might not be the deciding factor, but it's going to have an impact. |
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Post by Hordini on Jul 16, 2024 12:15:14 GMT -5
Delete: Further discussion on the election should probably go to the election thread...... This is the OT Zone. It doesn't matter where it goes. |
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Post by easye on Jul 16, 2024 13:10:58 GMT -5
The debate performance was a blip, just like the assassination attempt will be. Then, the Rs will have a convention bounce, as will the Dems. Happens every, single election.
The Polls going into the final week will be pretty much a dead heat because it has all been baked in with no real changes since 2020.
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Post by herzlos on Jul 16, 2024 14:50:55 GMT -5
Delete: Further discussion on the election should probably go to the election thread...... Anyway, FBI unlocked the shooters phone and traced his whereabouts the last few days. Surprisingly, he went to the gun range, bought some ammo, and a ladder too. None of that seems particularly surprising. I wonder if we'll figure out the why part. |
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Post by crispy78 on Jul 17, 2024 1:31:30 GMT -5
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Post by Peregrine on Jul 17, 2024 2:28:01 GMT -5
Why did the cops have to pick then of all times to be competent?
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Post by redchimera on Jul 17, 2024 4:37:23 GMT -5
All I'm reading there is that two people, with guns, in the United States!, on separate dates, were arrested. Around 10 miles away. If that's the definition of assassination attempt, everyone in the USA has had one.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Jul 17, 2024 5:06:59 GMT -5
All I'm reading there is that two people, with guns, in the United States!, on separate dates, were arrested. Around 10 miles away. If that's the definition of assassination attempt, everyone in the USA has had one. It's even worse. This article just takes a tweet by a notorious liar and narcissist, and spreads it as truth without any verification. I don't doubt people in a dozens of miles wide radius of Musk get arrested every day, but where is the proof to link any arrest to Musk in the first place, let alone any sort of "assassination" attempt? |
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Post by easye on Jul 17, 2024 10:31:33 GMT -5
I am not sure the "why" the shooter shot is even important to the narrative that is being created right now.
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Post by pacific on Jul 18, 2024 9:16:42 GMT -5
The debate performance was a blip, just like the assassination attempt will be. Then, the Rs will have a convention bounce, as will the Dems. Happens every, single election. The Polls going into the final week will be pretty much a dead heat because it has all been baked in with no real changes since 2020. One counter to this is I've read of the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff saying that Biden needs to step down, and I wonder now if we will get a cascade effect? Biden's words themselves have softened (he had originally said only God could stop him), and now I wonder if him catching Covid might be used as a precursor to him withdrawing? Certainly, was listening to a Sam Harris podcast the other day (and I'm not sure how much of a weather-vein he is on this topic) who is absolutely convinced that the attempted shooting, and especially the photo, is going to be an almost insurmountable obstacle for whoever the Dems put forward (even if they do replace Biden with Harris). |
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Post by easye on Jul 18, 2024 9:45:16 GMT -5
Replacing Biden with Harris would be monumentally stupid. To be blunt, all of this Fascism was triggered by a Black President followed by a Women candidate. Do you really think a Black Woman candidate has the ghost of a chance in America? This is typical Dems reacting to the media buzz instead of leading by brushing past it and hitting their own marks. Pelosi especially knows better! If they replace Biden, which they should not do; it would have to be Gavin Newsome. However, successful Governor's often fail at the National level so their success is NOT a given. We have seen this time, and time again in Presidential politics. Also, people claimed that the shooting attempt will "Change everything" have a fundamental misunderstanding of our current political situation. There is going to be a rally around the flag effect, but that effect will only impact the people all ready baked into voting for Trump. It won't move a single new "Non-Trump" voter. Source:
The race for the presidency remains unchanged in the wake of the assassination attempt on Trumpwww.ipsos.com/en-us/race-presidency-remains-unchanged-wake-assassination-attempt-trumpRepublicans need to do two things: 1. Get new voters to the polls - They are two busy fighting each other at the state level in key swing states to do that. 2. Demotivate the Democrats to not show-up - They seem to be having more success on this front thanks to the "replace Biden" movement that Dems themselves are starting to buy into! This will be this year's Swiftboats for Truth and But Her Emails. That is the real danger for Dems in this election. |
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Post by herzlos on Jul 18, 2024 9:49:31 GMT -5
I am not sure the "why" the shooter shot is even important to the narrative that is being created right now.
To a rational person, it'd be to try and figure out how to prevent something like that happening again. Was he part of a group where more members might try? Was he reacting to something? Was he just nuts?
But to a lot of people, it'll be used to generate blame. Look how much people are ignoring the Republican membership and focusing on a Democrat donation with a similar name to try and make it look like he was on the left. Some would presumably try and push towards banning Dems from having guns rather than addressing the problems directly.
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Post by easye on Jul 18, 2024 9:57:21 GMT -5
2A people wanting to ban Dems from having guns! Say it ain't so!
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