US Election - 2024

[Haighus]

Nov 4, 2024 7:42:21 GMT -5 herzlos said:

Nov 4, 2024 6:11:15 GMT -5 Haighus said:

I don't feel sorry for Trump because he has always been a horrible human being, his current behaviour isn't a personality shift due to senile cognitive impairment.

Oh he's absolutely a horrible human being, I'm not disputing that at all. And he absolutely shouldn't even be an option for any kind of leadership role.

I just think that his cognitive impairment has always been there, though is getting worse. It's just been masked and compensated for by his parents wealth, rather than just being a case of affluenza.

I'm... unconvinced he has always had a degree of cognitive impairment that would constitute a formal learning disability. I think that is an unhelpful direction to head in. Trump has undoubtedly been successful largely due to his parent's wealth, but that doesn't mean that without them he would have been intellectually disabled to the point of having a functional impairment on his day-to-day life (i.e. a formal learning disability).

I also feel like this is a somewhat ableist line of reasoning- "Trump is a bad person who makes bad decisions, so he is probably mentally disabled." Even if he was, it didn't stop him from becoming the President of the USA as a political outsider.

[mdgv2]

My take it on it is that he doesn’t have a learning disability, but is suffering from cognitive decline. And losing the last election broke something in his brain, it being the biggest, firmest, least ignorable NO he’s ever had in his life.

[crispy78]

I also doubt he has a formal learning disability. I think he's pretty thick, and pretty ignorant, but I don't think he has a specific issue - just low ability and not giving a shit at school cos rich.

[Disciple of Fate]

Nothing prohibits narcissists from being dumb. Money has been buying degrees for the rich and famous in the US for decades. It's just privilige for less intelligent children of rich parents, not indicative of any sort of disability.

[Peregrine]

I don't think Trump has any intellectual disability beyond age-related dementia. He's never been particularly smart but it's definitely revisionist history to say he's always been like this. Before 2016 nobody suggested he was intellectually disabled, he was just the embodiment of "mediocre white dude always falls upward" with a lot of talent for self-promotion. Even in 2016 the impression most people had was far more "the KKK's best used car salesman" than anything else. He said stupid things but it was mostly the stupid sound bite things his adoring base wanted to hear, they were never intended to be coherent policy positions. It's only in the past few years that we've started to see the used car salesman act fall apart and genuine signs of cognitive failures.

Nov 4, 2024 6:18:59 GMT -5 mdgv2 said:

Keep in mind he’s just the figurehead for Maga. A useful idiot of a puppet for Far Right Christian Nationalists determined to impose a theocracy.

What better literal tool than a loud mouthed, incompetent braggart who’ll say anything for a few bucks. Keep the focus and ire on him, not on what you’re up to.

Trump is not just a figurehead. As with many cults a huge part of the MAGA cult is personal loyalty to Trump himself. When Trump dies it's very likely the cult falls apart because that personal element is gone, and if it doesn't it's probably because one of Trump's family members managed to take control of the cult and inherit the personal loyalty.

[mdgv2]

Well, today’s the day. And there’s a reasonable chance that within 24 hours we’ll know the result.

[herzlos]

I see a lot of defensive construction going on in Washington, the White House is almost hidden, shops boarded up etc. So At least they are prepared for the election though it's still surreal that's required.

I wonder if the MAGAs will wait until the election has been announced before rioting?

I'd also seen some claim that polling reports for swing states had been fudged a bit (assuming double the 'highschool or lower graduates' turnout) to make them appear much closer than they are, which is only going to make them think fraud.

[Haighus]

Nov 5, 2024 4:27:13 GMT -5 herzlos said:

I see a lot of defensive construction going on in Washington, the White House is almost hidden, shops boarded up etc. So At least they are prepared for the election though it's still surreal that's required.

I wonder if the MAGAs will wait until the election has been announced before rioting?

I'd also seen some claim that polling reports for swing states had been fudged a bit (assuming double the 'highschool or lower graduates' turnout) to make them appear much closer than they are, which is only going to make them think fraud.

I think they'll wait until the typical red mirage gets eclipsed during the night*, because that is "the steal".


*This won't be as big as 2020- there were an exceptional number of absentee votes cast in 2020 due to COVID pandemic alterations.

[crispy78]

I did hear polling discussed on a podcast this morning. I can only take what the guy (it was Reed Galen from The Lincoln Project) said at face value, I don't know if this is truly the case, but supposedly most polling in the US is still done by the archaic method of phoning voters on their land lines and spending half an hour asking them questions. It is a very self-selecting process; it only polls people who still have land lines, are prepared to answer to an unrecognised number, and then spend half an hour talking to a random stranger about politics. That's got to skew the polls significantly.

[mdgv2]

And all because idiot bad losers have been taken in by an egomaniac fraudulent criminal dumbass.

[herzlos]

Nov 5, 2024 4:33:24 GMT -5 crispy78 said:

I did hear polling discussed on a podcast this morning. I can only take what the guy (it was Reed Galen from The Lincoln Project) said at face value, I don't know if this is truly the case, but supposedly most polling in the US is still done by the archaic method of phoning voters on their land lines and spending half an hour asking them questions. It is a very self-selecting process; it only polls people who still have land lines, are prepared to answer to an unrecognised number, and then spend half an hour talking to a random stranger about politics. That's got to skew the polls significantly.

I thought they'd tried to do something to hook younger voters, but I'm not sure what or how successful. I'm not sure I know anyone who'd answer a call from a pollster and then sit through 30 minutes of questions.

Though they do try and weight it based on historic data too. So for example, a majority of voters with high school or lower educated voted Republican (Trump) in 2020, with 19% of the turnout. But the prediction I'd seen had them at 39% of the turnout which skewed the results towards Trump. 

It's all total guesswork though and really only serves to try and make it more exciting. I'm just worried that the fudged for excitement is going to give MAGAs a false impression of success and then violent disappointment.

[Peregrine]

Nov 5, 2024 4:27:13 GMT -5 herzlos said:

I see a lot of defensive construction going on in Washington, the White House is almost hidden, shops boarded up etc. So At least they are prepared for the election though it's still surreal that's required.

It really is surreal. They aren't wrong to prepare for rioting given what happened last time but it's the kind of thing we're supposed to see in some failed state dictatorship, not in a civilized country.

As for if/when MAGA will riot, who knows. They're angry, they're stupid, they're armed, and they've spent the past four years hyping themselves up for a stolen election. But OTOH they've spent the past few months watching their idol falling apart on stage and they saw him do absolutely nothing to help any of the people who were arrested for the first riot/coup they attempted on his behalf. Even the ones that didn't go to prison over it know on some level that Trump is not going to save them if they try again and fail and that is pretty demoralizing. And then there's the question of general crime, the people who might take the opportunity for a little vandalism and looting while the cops are all busy dealing with the MAGA riot. If I had to bet I don't think we see any significant illegal activity from MAGA, especially outside DC, but I'm definitely staying home tonight with a rack of loaded guns just in case.

Nov 5, 2024 4:33:24 GMT -5 crispy78 said:

I did hear polling discussed on a podcast this morning. I can only take what the guy (it was Reed Galen from The Lincoln Project) said at face value, I don't know if this is truly the case, but supposedly most polling in the US is still done by the archaic method of phoning voters on their land lines and spending half an hour asking them questions. It is a very self-selecting process; it only polls people who still have land lines, are prepared to answer to an unrecognised number, and then spend half an hour talking to a random stranger about politics. That's got to skew the polls significantly.

That's accurate and it's been a subject of discussion for several years now. It's very hard to get accurate polling data when younger generations don't have land lines, don't answer calls from unknown numbers even if you try to poll all phone numbers, and will probably hang up as soon as they realize it's a spam call even if you somehow get through to them. What polling companies are trying to do is apply some kind of correction factor to the data they are able to collect, based on the historical correlation between polling data and election results. Nobody is using and reporting the raw data alone, not unless they're trying to fluff Trump's ego with unrealistic but favorable numbers. But trying to add those adjustment factors brings in a whole new layer of potential errors. Even if the polling company isn't suffering from any partisan bias, conscious or unconscious, it's easy to miss or over-emphasize various factors and end up with something little better than blind guessing. And if they do suffer from partisan bias or a desire to push the horse race narrative...

[mdgv2]

Just the fact that you, someone I respect as Not Even Close To Being A Nutter, are preparing to secure your home worries me.

No in a “what are you thinking” way. More that….i get it. Because if it does kick off? It won’t just be Maga chimps flinging shit. But a lovely bit of cover for more common or garden variety crime, on account the powers that be will be somewhat distracted elsewhere.

On the polling? Don’t forget the younger folk are generally more aware and wary of the risks of sharing personal details with some randomer. Is it really a Pollster, or a scammer? Because once you’re in conversation with someone, it’s really easy to trick them into revealing sensitive information*. Or, and I accept my Beret of Tinfoil to be worn at a jaunty angle for this, your local MAGA Pig Fucker trying to put together a hit list of “demoncrats wot am steel mein Furher’s vote”.

is that last one common? Hopefully not. But you just know some of them have at least thought about it.

*I do this at work, for the right reasons.

[skyth]

There was a sheriff that wanted to keep of list of Harris supporters...

[Disciple of Fate]

Given the amount of police unions that have thrown their support behind Trump, I think it's more than a few law enforcement individuals you have to worry about.