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Ukraine
Feb 21, 2024 11:20:34 GMT -5
Post by easye on Feb 21, 2024 11:20:34 GMT -5
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Feb 21, 2024 13:19:09 GMT -5
The Russians can just slowly grind through the Ukrainians if given enough time, they just have more men and material. Now that the West has exhausted their immediate stockpiles, it takes a long time to produce new stuff. It's the Stalin quote of quantity having a quality of its own, in action once again.
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Post by pacific on Feb 26, 2024 6:43:15 GMT -5
Yes - we have to hope that some form of 'war weariness' starts to affect Russia to the point where Putin's position becomes more precarious. Ukraine released its total casualty figures to date of 31,000 - an awful lot of people and many broken families, we won't ever see the figures but I can't imagine what Russia's casualty numbers must be in comparison. We know anyone protesting gets arrested (we have seen photos of a few brave souls, usually just the elderly who must feel they have nothing to lose) but can only hope there are resistance movements behind the scenes, whose reach will be growing with each family that loses a brother, a sister, a father or mother to what is an utterly senseless conflict.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Feb 26, 2024 11:34:00 GMT -5
The figure of 31.000 is those killed, the likely casualty count is easily 3 times that. We also don't know if it is entirely honest, the US estimated 6 months ago that double that number had already been killed on the Ukrainian side.
As for Russian war weariness, maybe, but giving up for Putin isn't an option, so it's a race between weariness and oppression. It feels like the best moment for this has passed with most of those at the top either purged or behind Putin. Putin can just keep the conflict going for much longer if he stopped trying to advance, which causes most of the Russian casualties and possible weariness.
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Ukraine
Mar 4, 2024 11:00:35 GMT -5
Post by easye on Mar 4, 2024 11:00:35 GMT -5
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Mar 4, 2024 11:30:08 GMT -5
I don't think it really matters who is in command at the moment. The Ukrainians are just suffering from a lack of resources and their defenses cracked under continuous pressure. Having competent leaders is nice, but it doesn't win you wars by itself. Russia needs to win this in 2024, because in 2025 Western aid might surge significantly, as US elections and European production ramp-ups will really be felt next year.
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Ukraine
Mar 13, 2024 10:31:08 GMT -5
Post by easye on Mar 13, 2024 10:31:08 GMT -5
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Post by Haighus on Mar 14, 2024 7:49:57 GMT -5
Interestingly (and scarily) the Ukraine war is spilling out into other conflicts. The Gazan angle has been discussed already, but that is less of a direct influence by Russia.
However, the Sudanese civil war (which hasn't been discussed much on here) has a big role in Russian geopolitical power.
One of the factions in the Sudanese war controls goldmines in the south west of the country. Russia is supporting this group in exchange for what is essentially black market gold they can use for global trade with plausible deniability. This is helping to fund ongoing operations in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military is taking this seriously enough that Ukrainian special forces have been seen operating in Sudan to interfere with this.
The other angle is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with the UAE backing the same faction as Russia in order to get influence over the Red Sea. The US seems to be unsure how to handle this as they have strong connections to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
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Post by Disciple of Fate on Mar 14, 2024 11:41:21 GMT -5
Feels like the West needs to get involved in these proxy wars too. While the gold mines aren't too important, Niger supplied 20% of French uranium for their power supply. No points for guessing who is active in the coup in Niger? 2/3rds of the French supply now comes from countries in (semi-)Russian orbit, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Niger.
It feels very imperialist to state this, but Russia is slowly putting a lot of necessary strategic resources in its hands. At what point would we need to intervene in spite of trying to favor self determination? If you can even call opposing Russian backed coups interferring with self determination?
The Cold War is in full swing again, and we're not even out on the field at this point. I don't envy those having to make the decision on if or/and when the West needs to get more closely involved.
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Ukraine
Mar 15, 2024 5:06:23 GMT -5
Post by pacific on Mar 15, 2024 5:06:23 GMT -5
Interesting you have said about the Cold War there Disciple as I was about to say the same - in some ways things have not changed, but it's a marked difference from the early 90s and 00s and it seems now that Russia has gone full Star Wars march of the Empire theme tune. This should be no surprise as Putin sees himself as a successor to Peter the Great, and that Russia is fulfilling its destiny as a power.
It's also a strong counter-argument to the appeasers who think that Putin will just stop at Ukraine, should Russia triumph there.
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Post by pacific on Apr 12, 2024 8:15:33 GMT -5
So, Russia has been absolutely hammering Ukraine's infrastructure. Some comments from analysts that this is where Ukraine is running low on ammunition for anti-aircraft weaponry/missiles and this is allowing Russian air power to encroach further and further into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine now passing through a law which will lower the age of conscription and reducing leave time for front-line units. Definitely some dark times. And on the subject of Western aid, yes, we could tell you this wasn't going to work David. You were missing the one key element, which was footage of Donald in a Moscow hotel room. www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/09/david-cameron-trump-ukraine-aidEven the Japanese PM pointing out that the US government must fulfil it's obligations in terms of supporting the rest of the world - 1930s in repeat.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Ukraine
Apr 25, 2024 12:06:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Haighus on Apr 25, 2024 12:06:08 GMT -5
I know I'm late to this party, but just found out that Ukraine is using Tsarist-era maxim guns in frontline combat, and have been since 2016.
It makes sense when considering the kinds of positional warfare occurring in Ukraine, with a lot of similarities to WWI. Maxim guns can be brilliant in that context. However, using guns that are over 100 years old is interesting in its own right. Some of those weapons will have seen action in both world wars prior to this.
They also seem to be getting jury-rigged into basic AA mounts to take out drones. Stockpiled bullets are a lot cheaper than missiles and probably adequate for many drones.
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semipotentwalrus
Ye Olde King of OT
A somewhat powerful marine mammal.
Posts: 980
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Ukraine
Apr 25, 2024 12:10:24 GMT -5
Post by semipotentwalrus on Apr 25, 2024 12:10:24 GMT -5
While more modern weapons are some combination of more reliable, more light-weight, easier to use and so on they're still iterations on the same design.
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Ukraine
Apr 25, 2024 12:47:05 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Disciple of Fate on Apr 25, 2024 12:47:05 GMT -5
As Walrus said, some guns haven't advanced that far from some basic designs from WW1. The .50 M2 is still in use everywhere in the armies of the West and the design is from the end of WW1.
Just replace parts as needed.
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Haighus
Ye Olde King of OT
Posts: 902
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Ukraine
Apr 25, 2024 13:16:10 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Haighus on Apr 25, 2024 13:16:10 GMT -5
Whilst true, the Maxim is from 1884 and is the only water cooled weapon still in use to my knowledge. Plus, the actual guns being used are antiques in their own right.
This is the military equivalent to bolt action rifles being handed out to line infantry again. It is just a different era of warfare, and interesting to see how these old weapons are being dusted off when the conditions suit.
Aside from the M2 and the M1911, how many weapons of a similar vintage are still in frontline use in a modern war?
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